Abstract
Prescribed burning (PB) is practiced throughout the USA, most extensively in the southeast, for the purpose of maintaining and improving the ecosystem and reducing wildfire risk. However, PB emissions contribute significantly to trace gas and particulate matter loads in the atmosphere. In places where air quality is already stressed by other anthropogenic emissions, PB can lead to major health and environmental problems. We developed a PB impact forecasting system to facilitate the dynamic management of air quality by modulating PB activity. In our system, a new decision tree model predicts burn activity based on the weather forecast and historic burning patterns. Emission estimates for the forecast burn activity are input into an air quality model, and simulations are performed to forecast the air quality impacts of the burns on trace gas and particulate matter concentrations. An evaluation of the forecasts for two consecutive burn seasons (2015 and 2016) showed that the modeling system has promising forecasting skills that can be further improved with refinements in burn area and plume rise estimates. Since 2017, air quality and burn impact forecasts are being produced daily with the ultimate goal of incorporating them into the management of PB operations.
Highlights
Prescribed burning (PB) is the intentional, controlled burning of dead and live vegetation for agricultural, land clearing, or silvicultural purposes, or to reduce the wildfire risk [1].Here, we are mostly interested in the PB of forested lands
The skill of the forecasting system in predicting PB impacts is evaluated by comparisons to smoke-induced peaks in observed pollutant levels at network monitors in 2016
To investigate other possible reasons, we focused on the true positives in Figure 7 and analyzed the relationship between the bias in burn impacts and the bias in burn areas
Summary
Prescribed burning (PB) is the intentional, controlled burning of dead and live vegetation for agricultural, land clearing, or silvicultural purposes, or to reduce the wildfire risk [1].Here, we are mostly interested in the PB of forested lands. Prescribed burning (PB) is the intentional, controlled burning of dead and live vegetation for agricultural, land clearing, or silvicultural purposes, or to reduce the wildfire risk [1]. Forests in Southeastern USA contain many fire-adapted tree species that need fire to survive [2]. Fire restores nutrients to the soil, kills invasive species, controls insects and disease, improves wildlife habitat, and reduces the accumulation of debris on the forest floor. If left untreated, accumulated debris increases the chances of catastrophic wildfires that destroy forests but cause loss of life and property [3]. Due to these benefits, land managers prefer prescribed fire over other alternatives. In Southeastern USA, more than 2 million ha are treated with prescribed fire each year, and Georgia is one of the leading states in PB with nearly 550,000 ha year−1 [4]
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