Forecasting of DST index from auroral electrojet indices using time-delay neural network + particle swarm optimization

Abstract

In this study, an artificial neural network was optimized with particle swarm algorithm and trained to predict the geomagmetic DST index one hour ahead using the past values of DST and auroral electrojet indices. The results show that the proposed neural network model can be properly trained for predicting of DST(t + 1) with acceptable accuracy, and that the geomagnetic indices used have influential effects on the good training and predicting capabilities of the chosen network.