Forecasting Monthly Rainfall of Karyes, Chios Island, Greece, Central-Eastern Mediterranean Basin Using the ARIMA Method

Thomas Papalaskaris

doi:10.3390/environsciproc2020002068

Abstract

Chios Island undergoes scarcity of freshwater, forcing local authorities to establish a sea-water desalination plant to cope with island’s water needs. Karyes village is plentiful with freshwater springs, augmented every year by the rainfall occurring over this particular district, supplying, in turn, some high-quality freshwater obtaining spots into the capital of Chios, thus establishing an important freshwater origin of the entire Chios Island itself. The present study administers the Box–Jenkins method, utilizing SARIMA (Seasonal Autorregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to achieve short term predictions of monthly rainfall in Karyes village, modeling past rainfall time series and forecasting future ones. The model which best fits to both interpretations of the past rainfall data is selected, assessed by several statistical model evaluation criteria.

Highlights

Rainfall can be definitely considered as a non-linear natural process raising significant difficulties, especially while trying to forecast future values
One of the mostly widespread methods for time series data analysis is that elaborated within the general context of stochastic hydrology [1], bearing the name of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
Primordial time series analysis was carried out dealing with total monthly rainfall data recorded from February 1982–November 2018 (37 years) employing the Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model-building procedure

Summary

Introduction

Rainfall can be definitely considered as a non-linear natural process raising significant difficulties, especially while trying to forecast future values. Total monthly rainfall depth (mm) was forecasted, implementing Box–Jenkins method, for Kavala city, NE Aegean Sea, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin [3,4]. A SARIMA model was developed to predict total monthly rainfall depth (mm), for Metaxades village area, Evros prefecture, NE Aegean Sea, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin [5]. The Box–Jenkins method was employed to build a SARIMA model and forecast total monthly rainfall depth (mm), for several streams in Eastern Macedonia-Thrace, NE Aegean Sea, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin [6]. Another SARIMA was developed to predict total monthly rainfall depth (mm), for Karyes village area, Chios Island, NE Aegean Sea, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin [7]

Methods

Results

Conclusion