Forecasting Methods in Electric Power Sector

Abstract

Electric power plays a vibrant role in economic growth and development of a region. There is a strong co-relation between the human development index and per capita electricity consumption. Providing adequate energy of desired quality in various forms in a sustainable manner and at a competitive price is one of the biggest challenges. To meet the fast-growing electric power demand, on a sustained basis, meticulous power system planning is required. This planning needs electrical load forecasting as it provides the primary inputs and enables financial analysis. Accurate electric load forecasts are helpful in formulating load management strategies in view of different emerging economic scenarios, which can be dovetailed with the development plan of the region. The objective of this article is to understand various long term electrical load forecasting techniques, to assess its applicability; and usefulness for long term electrical load forecasting for an isolated remote region, under different growth scenarios considering demand side management, price and income effect.