Abstract
Rapid economic growth, increasing population, industrialization and high living standards have increased the electricity demand more than ever before. Efficient energy planning and management is always considered as the greatest challenge in all over the world. Among the other factors availability of electricity is the main bottleneck to the economic growth and industrial revolution. Considering this fact, it becomes necessary for academicians, government agencies and electricity companies to construct more efficient methodologies and procedures to predict long-term electricity demand. The objective of this article represents the initiative towards understanding and analyzing the importance of demand-side management (DSM) in forecasting electricity demand by using a system dynamics approach. This study examines the long term impact of demand-side management variables including HER (Home energy report), MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) and NEEAP (National Energy Efficiency Action Plan). The future installation capacity of Malaysia’s power generation is evaluated considering the factors of population, per capita electricity consumption, efficiency, capacity margin and DSM. The forecasting horizon of the simulation model is 15 years from 2016 to 2030. Keywords : Energy forecasting, System Dynamics, Energy efficiency, Energy Demand Side Management JEL Classifications: O18, Q21 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9716
Highlights
An uninterrupted supply of electricity is considered as an essential component for human development in the 21st century
To demonstrate the importance of feedback relationships in determining the behavior of complex electricity demand forecasting system, our model considers population rising trend, per capita electricity consumption and evaluate the impact of demand-side management on installation capacity of Malaysia’s power generation
Concerning the base scenario, it is estimated that by the years 2030 the total electricity demand expected to reach at 156,507 GWh on the other hand the increased in generation capacity should be planned for 246,489 GWh considering 40% demand to reserve margin
Summary
An uninterrupted supply of electricity is considered as an essential component for human development in the 21st century. The fundamental requirement for effective government policies is to ensure affordable, acceptable and consistent supplies of electricity to all sectors (Tufail et al, 2018a; Dooyum et al, 2020; Geng, 2021) In this regard appropriate electricity demand forecasting is essential. Socovol and Drupady (2011) discuss the issues of power generation projects These studies adopted both qualitative and quantitative methodologies still ignored some of the critical variables because of rigidness of tool and complexity of the model. Several internal and external factors impact on the electricity demand such as population growth, consumption pattern and equipment efficiency, etc Considering this fact, it is essential to adopt an efficient and reliable tool which has provision to integrate several variables impacting on the system. Considering Malaysia as a case study an integrated system dynamics model was developed coupled with a modeling structure based on the framework of IThink 9.0 software, which offered a realistic platform for predicting the trends of Malaysia’s electricity demand by 2030 compliance with the Malaysian policies
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