Abstract
In view of the fact that aero-engines have complicated structure and multiple failure modes,traditional methods are difficult to meet the requirements. A forecasting method for aero-engine failure risk based on Monte Carlo simulation is presented,which is used to evaluate the possibility of failure for each component of engine in the future. According to the characteristics of aero-engine failure data,the failure probability model is based on the Weibull distribution whose parameters are estimated by the method of rank regression. Combining multiplicative congruent generator with the inverse transform method,the random numbers are produced to satisfy Weibull distribution. The method used to forecast failure risk for engines with multifailure modes is based on the one with single failure mode. The simulation procedures and algorithm,by comparing the simulation results with the forecasting datum from the engine manufacture are presented,it proves that the algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation are effective in aero-engine failure risk forecast.
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