Abstract
The objective of this analysis is to develop a model to forecast the consumption of fossil fuels by electric utilities on a month-to-month basis. A scheme is devised and implemented that attributes fossil-fuel generation (exclusive of coal) to the consumption of residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, crude oil, and natural gas. A multinomial logit specification is used whereby the share of each of these fuels is a function of relative prices, weather, time, seasonal factors, and extraneous influences (e.g. a coal strike). The results agree well with actual shares.
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