Abstract
Local climate conditions play a major role in the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the main vector responsible for transmitting dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever in urban centers. For this reason, a detailed assessment of periods in which changes in climate conditions affect the number of human cases may improve the timing of vector-control efforts. In this work, we develop new machine-learning algorithms to analyze climate time series and their connection to the occurrence of dengue epidemic years for seven Brazilian state capitals. Our method explores the impact of two key variables—frequency of precipitation and average temperature—during a wide range of time windows in the annual cycle. Our results indicate that each Brazilian state capital considered has its own climate signatures that correlate with the overall number of human dengue-cases. However, for most of the studied cities, the winter preceding an epidemic year shows a strong predictive power. Understanding such climate contributions to the vector’s biology could lead to more accurate prediction models and early warning systems.
Highlights
Dengue Fever is a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease present in more than 110 countries and a current threat to half of the world population [1, 2]
We highlight significant differences between climate conditions during epidemic/non-epidemic years for a period starting at day t0 and duration of p days along the yearly cycle
Note the significant overlap between the red and blue dots, suggesting that using this region for prediction of an epidemic is highly suspect. This result illustrates that each city has a unique pattern of clustering that can be capitalized on in order to provide predictive metrics for dengue epidemic years
Summary
Dengue Fever is a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease present in more than 110 countries and a current threat to half of the world population [1, 2]. The dengue virus is primarily transmitted to humans through infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. This main disease vector is well adapted to urban environments, which allow viruses to spread through cities. The first cases of dengue in Brazil date from the end of the 19th century, and despite the elimination of the Aedes aegypti in 1955, the mosquito was reintroduced in the country in the 70s. Dengue has become one of the major public health problems in Brazil, with several epidemics reported yearly across the country. While dengue symptoms are usually limited to fever and muscle/joint pain, some develop more severe forms of the disease such as hemorrhagic fever or shock syndrome
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