Abstract
Despite a most unhelpful international background, the UK recovery remains in place. Output has been rising, slowly but steadily, for five quarters and is 2 per cent higher than at the trough of the recession in early 1992. We expect output to continue rising at a relatively sluggish rate, held back by the recession in Europe which may persist into 1994. The recovery has generated a modest drop in unemployment but little upward pressure on prices. Inflation has passed its (30‐year) low point, though we are optimistic that it can be contained at or close to the Government's 4 per cent ceiling. The five‐month decline in unemployment has been reversed in the last two months but it may still be possible not to breach the 3 million level and over the medium term we expect the trend in unemployment to be gently down.
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