Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the waste sector is important to evaluating measures for reduction of GHG emissions. To forecast GHG emissions and identify potential emission reduction for GHG emissions, scenarios applied with environmental policy such as waste reduction and structural change of waste treatment were developed. Scenario Ⅰ estimated GHG emissions under the business as usual (BAU) baseline. Scenario Ⅱ estimated GHG emissions with the application of the waste reduction policy while scenario Ⅲ was based on the policy of structural change of waste treatment. Scenario Ⅳ was based on both the policies of waste reduction and structural change of waste treatment. As for the different scenarios, GHG emissions were highest under scenarios Ⅲ, followed by scenarios Ⅳ, Ⅰ, and Ⅱ. In particular, GHG emissions increased under scenario Ⅲ due to the increased GHG emissions from the enhanced waste incineration due to the structural change of waste treatment. This result indicated that the waste reduction is the primary policy for GHG reduction from waste. GHG emission from landfill was higher compared to those from incineration. However, the contribution of GHG emission from incineration increased under scenario Ⅲ and Ⅳ. This indicated that more attention should be paid to the waste treatment for incineration to reduce GHG emissions.

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