Forecast of Future Impacts of Using ICT Services on GHG Emissions Reduction and GDP Growth in Japan

Abstract

AbstractInformation and communication technologies (ICTs) can potentially contribute to realizing a decarbonized and dematerialized society through increased productivity in many industries and lifestyle changes. Several previous studies have focused on these environmental impacts of ICTs use by estimating and comparing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions with and without existing ICT use. However, few studies have estimated the environmental impacts of future ICT use. In this paper, a method is proposed to make scenarios and estimate future environmental and economic impacts of ICTs use on the basis of a computable general equilibrium (AIM/CGE [Japan]) model. The evaluated ICT services are ICT services already in common use and several new ICTs. Two scenarios (baseline and ICT accelerated) until 2030 are set for assessing the environmental and economic impacts of using these ICTs. Model simulation results show Japan’s GHG emissions to be about 34 Mt-CO2eq lower and gross domestic product (GDP) more than ¥33 trillion higher in 2030 in the ICT accelerated scenario than in the baseline scenario. This demonstrates that ICTs will be able to contribute to both economic growth and GHG emissions reduction in the future.KeywordsICTsEnvironmental impactsGDPGHG emissions reductionScenarioCGE model