Forecast of demand for the rmal energy for buildings of secondary educational institutions based on the properties of heteromorphism of their energy systems

S. V. Guzhov

doi:10.30724/1998-9903-2020-22-5-18-27

Abstract

THE PURPOSE. Improving the accuracy of forecast calculations of demand for energy resources is an urgent task, especially in the light of the Digital Energy of the Russian Federation program. Prediction is also required for he at supply systems. The complexity of the analysis is the lack of confirmation of the similarity properties of energy systems and complexes for buildings with similar functionality. On the example of buildings of secondary educational institutions located i n the territory of Moscow, the assumption of heteromorphism of thermal systems is proved. METHODS. In the work, an assumption was made that there were no significant changes in the data on the heat consumption of the energy facilities of schools, which was confirmed by the absence of changes in the average annual heat consumption and jumps in the monthly heat consumption diagrams. The amount of heat energy consumption measured and transferred to the IS is influenced by a number of additional factors: accura cy drift of heat energy metering devices; aging and overgrowing of the internal surfaces of the building's heating network equipment; physical aging and deterioration of the building envelope and deterioration of their thermal insulation performance. When compiling predicted energy consumption, this means that it is permissible to use not only statistical data about the analyzed object itself, but also about a variety of objects similar to those analyzed in structure and functionality. RESULTS. A set of input factors is proposed that makes it possible to accurately determine the predicted demand for thermal energy for buildings of secondary educational institutions. The possibility and similar accuracy of the results of forecasting the demand for thermal ene rgy is shown both through the use of multivariate regression analysis and artificial neural networks. CONCLUSION. ЭBased on the combined use of various mathematical approaches, it is proposed to use the methodology for forecasting energy demand by energy complexes and systems as a mechanism for determining the correctness of the transmitted meter readings.

Highlights

Введение Повышение качества прогнозов на спрос энергетических ресурсов предприятиями, организациями и учреждениями является актуальным направлением в свете положений, зафиксированных в программе «Цифровая энергетика Российской Федерации» 1
Prediction is also required for heat supply systems
The complexity of the analysis is the lack of confirmation of the similarity properties

Summary

Introduction

Введение Повышение качества прогнозов на спрос энергетических ресурсов предприятиями, организациями и учреждениями является актуальным направлением в свете положений, зафиксированных в программе «Цифровая энергетика Российской Федерации» 1. Первым допущением является факт создания прогнозной модели на основании статистических данных энергопотребления предприятия в прошлом с последующим составлением нескольких сценарных прогнозных моделей, например, для «нейтрального», «пессимистичного» и «оптимистичного» варианта развития событий. Высокая точность моделирования может быть достигнута посредством использования достаточно большого числа входных данных, обладающих высокой степенью точностью и достоверности.

Results

Conclusion