Food shortage simulations: An application of the food accounting matrix with proportionality assumptions

Crop forecasts are beginning to produce useful results in Sub‐Saharan Africa. If from these it were possible to produce estimates of the likely changes in commodity flows to different population groups, the effects of short run fluctuations in food supply could be anticipated. This paper demonstrates how this might be done using a Food Accounting Matrix (FAM) as a data base. The simulations demonstrated in the paper are based on proportional change. The limitations of proportionality assumptions are discussed.