Global Environmental Change | VOL. 20
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Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production

Publication Date Aug 1, 2010

Abstract

Abstract Today, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 15% of total global anthropogenic emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Projecting the future development of agricultural non-CO 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to assess their impacts on the climate system but poses many problems as future demand of agricultural products is highly uncertain. We developed a global land use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions from various agricultural activities by combining socio-economic information on population, income, food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields. In this article we describe how agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions are implemented within MAgPIE and compare our simulation results with other studies. Furthermore, we apply the model up to 2055 to assess the impact of future changes in food consumption and diet shifts, but also of technological mitigation options on agricultural non-CO 2 GHG emissions. As a result, we found that global agricultural non-CO 2 emissions increase significantly until 2055 if food energy consumption and diet preferences remain constant at the level of 1995. Non-CO 2 GHG emissions will rise even more if increasing food energy consumption and changing dietary preferences towards higher value foods, like meat and milk, with increasing income are taken into account. In contrast, under a scenario of reduced meat consumption, non-CO 2 GHG emissions wou...

Concepts
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Changes In Food Consumption
Changing Dietary Preferences
Impact Of Future Changes
Diet Shifts
non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
Global Land Use
Higher Value Foods
Potential Crop Yields
Technological Options

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