Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviation

Abstract

Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future. • We study China’s scenario-based civil aviation carbon emissions using decomposition analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. • Four key factors driving civil aviation carbon emissions change are identified. • Carbon intensity reduction goals are likely to be achieved in different scenarios before 2020. • Carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario.