Flood Risk Assessment Index for Urban Mobility with the Aid of Quasi-2d Flood Model Applied to an Industrial Park in São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

Risk can be defined as the relationship between the likelihood of a hazard causing a potential disaster and its consequences. This study aims to assess the likelihood that a new industrial region, located in the state of São Paulo (Brazil), will be flooded, causing the disruption of the mobility system and local economic activities. To fulfill this aim, a new approach is proposed by combining the vector information of the highway network that serves the region with the result of a quasi 2-D raster flood model, generating a set of interpreting rules for classifying the safety of routes. The model called MODCEL is a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model that represents the watershed using compartments called cells, and it was adapted to work using a raster file format in which each pixel is represented as a flow cell connected to its surroundings by the Saint-Venant equations without the inertia terms. Therefore, this study proposes an assessment framework that can be replicated for similar problems of flood risks to mobility. The possible effects of flood events on the accessibility to areas of interest are determined, indicating a possible disruption to economic activities and transportation and allowing for planning alternatives in advance.