First evidence for correlations between electron fluxes measured by NOAA-POES satellites and large seismic events

Abstract

We present the result for the search of correlations between the precipitation of low energy electrons (E>0.3MeV) trapped within the Van Allen Belts and earthquakes with magnitude above 5 Richter scale. We used the electron data measured by the NOAA POES 15,16,17 and 18 satellites collected during a period of 13 years, corresponding to about 18 thousands M>5 earthquakes registered in the NEIC catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey. We defined Particle Burst (PB) the fluctuations of electrons counting rate having a probability <1% to be a background fluctuation. Within a time window of ±36 hours, we observe a clear correlation peak at −1.25±0.25 hours. This result is obtained using data driven algorithms independent from specific modelling of the lithosphere-ionosphere coupling and adding the data collected by each POES satellite. The significance of the observed correlation peak is 5.7 s.d. corresponding to a probability of 1.210−6 of being a statistical fluctuation. The observed correlation involves about 1.410−3 of the earthquakes in that period of time. It provides the first statistically convincing evidence for the existence of a detectable coupling mechanism between the lithosphere and the magnetosphere having well defined time characteristics.