Finite element investigation of the poroelastic effect on the Xinfengjiang Reservoir-triggered earthquake

Abstract

Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) are used in the study of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) generation. The threshold value of ΔCFS that can trigger earthquakes is an important issue that deserves thorough research. The Ms6.1 earthquake in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in 1962 is well acknowledged as the largest reservoir-induced earthquake in China. Therefore, it is a logical site for quantitative calculation of ΔCFS induced by the filling of the reservoir and for investigating the magnitude of ΔCFS that can trigger reservoir seismic activities. To better understand the RIS mechanism, a three-dimensional poroelastic finite element model of the Xinfengjiang Reservoir is proposed here, taking into consideration of the precise topography and dynamic water level. We calculate the instant changes of stress and pore pressure induced by water load, and the time variation of effective stresses due to pore water diffusion. The ΔCFS on the seismogenesis faults and the accumulation of strain energy in the reservoir region are also calculated. Primary results suggest that the reservoir impoundment increases both pore pressure and ΔCFS on the fault at the focal depth. The diffusion of pore pressure was likely the main factor that triggered the main earthquake, whereas the elastic stress owing to water load was relatively small. The magnitude of ΔCFS on seismogenesis fault can reach approximately 10 kPa, and the ΔCFS values at the hypocenter can be about 0.7–3.0 kPa, depending on the fault diffusion coefficient. The calculated maximum vertical subsidence caused by the water load in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir is 17.5 mm, which is in good agreement with the observed value of 15 mm. The accumulated strain energy owing to water load was only about 7.3×1011 J, even less than 1% of the seismic wave energy released by the earthquake. The reservoir impoundment was the only factor that triggered the earthquake.