Financial stochastic model to measure minimum rearing capacity laying hen farms

Abstract

Big and medium scale of laying hen farms face up with higher odor pollution risk than the smaller, but more efficient opportunity of cost efficiency. Besides of scale and environment problem, laying hens farm must deal with egg and feed price fluctuation, labor cost, mortality and productivity. The research directed to: i) analyze technical aspects of small scale farmers, (ii) analyze farmers financial performance, (iii) simulate performance in six scales of farms by introducing uncertain (probabilistic) factors: rearing capacity, egg and feed price, and capability to produce eggs. Research method was observation by in laying hens farms in Banyumas and Cilacap Regency with 37 respondents, rearing capacity from 100 to 1,500 hens. Data were analyze descriptively, financial cross tabulation data and statistical simulation Montecarlo. Laying hens farm which the cage above pond have higher profit. Rearing scale below 500 hens tend to have loss. Labor and feed efficiency can be achieved at 1,500 hens rearing scale. Financial simulation results minimum productivity level to avoid negative impact of egg and feed price fluctuation as well as mortality was 70% or above. Laying hens rearing on land was more vulnerable to negative impact of odor pollution than above on fish pond.