Financial risk analysis of three aeration regimes in catfish cage culture

Abstract

This study analysed the benefits and costs of three airlift aeration regimes — continuous (24 hr), partial (9 hr/night plus emergencies), and no aeration — for channel catfish in cages. Data from four field studies included four dependent variables based on size at harvest, and six independent variables. Four regression models were fit with a modified Cobb‐Douglas production function in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression system. Yield projections from the production function were then used in a stochastic economic model with prices and variable costs expressed as triangular distributions. Results indicated that none of the aeration methods was preferred to the others by either first‐ or second‐degree stochastic dominance criteria, although partial aeration was the risk‐neutral choice. A power analysis was used to demonstrate that an impractical number of replicates would be needed to detect a difference between partial and continuous aeration that was both economically and statistically significant.