Fertility Decline in Indonesia

Abstract

Data are obtained from the 1971 1976 1980 1985 and 1990 censuses of Indonesia the 1987 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey and the 1991 Demographic and Health Survey. Four indirect estimation technics are used to compute fertility: the own-children method of Cho Retherford and Choe; the last live birth method of Dasvarma and Hull; the Palmore method; and the Rele method. Direct method estimates are available for 1987 and 1991 data and Adioetomo et al. prepared estimates for 1987 using yet another methodology. Three clear findings are reported in this article. 1) Fertility in Indonesia declined rapidly during 1971-91 as evidenced by all estimation methods. The first four methods do not agree with one another very well prior to 1980. Estimates agree closely for 1990 and 1991. 2) In general the last live birth method gives lower estimates. The own-children method estimates show fertility declines of 42.5% during 1971-91. Estimates of fertility decline are 39.3% for the Rele method 42.3% for the Palmore method and 47.1% for the last live birth method. 3) Declines were more rapid during 1980-90 and ranged from 24.9% to 34.4%. The wide range in estimates of fertility levels is attributed to the well-known inaccuracies in age reporting small sample sizes diversity in time period and inaccurate recording by interviewers. 1987 data are particularly troublesome. Java and Bali experienced fertility decline from 4.49 to 2.52 based on the last live birth method from 5.39 to 2.89 based on the own-children method from 5.12 to 2.99 based on the Rele method and from 5.44 to 3.12 based on the Palmore method during 1971-90. Although fertility declined in all six provinces in Java and Bali the patterns of decline varied. Several distinctive features are that the onset of decline occurred in the 1960s in all provinces with the exception of DKI Jakarta and that by 1990 close to replacement fertility was reached in DI Yogyakarta Bali DKI Jakarta and East Java provinces. In the Outer Islands I and II where family planning was initiated later fertility decline was greater during 1980-90 compared to Java and Bali. Provincial analysis for 1991 reveals that direct estimates are lower than own-children methods. The authors contend that the direct estimates are invalid. In 1991 fertility ranged widely from 1.96 in DI Yogyakarta to 3.40 in West Java.