Abstract
Estimate climatogenic changes in phenorhythms of Olea europaea L. during the growing season in Southern coast of the Crimea carried out. The study used data of olive trees phenological observations and data climatic parameters during 1947–2020. It was established that in the ‘Nikitskaya’ cultivar during studied period of climate change the steady bias tendency to shift to earlier budbreak dates and fruit maturity has been observed since the 80s, the flowering has been since the 90s of the XX century, first leaves separated has been since the beginning of the XXI century and it differs in the highest rates. For the last 2001–2020 the tendency to shift earlier spring phenophases of budbreak and first leaves separated has increased 1.5–2 times. Phenological models using as input variable temperature and photoperiod were developed to predict dates beginning of full flowering ‘Nikitskaya’ olive cultivar. Forecast accuracy amount to 2.7–4.1 days. The expected future change those dates to end of XXI century are also shown.
Highlights
The olive (Olea europaea L.) is one of the most long-term and ancient species among evergreen subtropical fruit crops grown in the Crimea [1]
Most of the phenological models described by many authors have revealed temperature as the best external variable to predict flowering time of the olive, photoperiod may have an influence, less than temperature [4, 7]
The highest rates of temperature rise in the first decades of the XXI century were observed in the spring and summer seasons
Summary
The olive (Olea europaea L.) is one of the most long-term and ancient species among evergreen subtropical fruit crops grown in the Crimea [1]. The object of our work was to estimate climatogenic changes in phenorhythms of olive trees during the growing season and development of phenological models to forecasting date beginning of ‘Nikitskaya’ olive cultivar full flowering in Southern coast of the Crimea.
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