Abstract

We analyze the economic effects of greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction measures of the generation sector of South Korea to accomplish the 2030 GHG reduction target using a scenario-based approach. We estimate the GHG emission of the South Korean power industry in 2030 based on both the 7th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan and the GHG emission coefficients issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). We establish four scenarios for reduction measures by replacing the coal-fired power plants with nuclear power, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) combined cycle generation. Finally, the nuclear power scenario demonstrates the most positive measure in terms of GHG reduction and economic effects.

Highlights

  • According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Report Volume 5, greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities had increased the average global temperature by 0.85 ◦C from 1880 to 2012

  • In order to maintain consistency with the ongoing energy policy of South Korea, we refer to the 7th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan [15] to estimate the baseline of the GHG emission of the year 2030 for the generation sector, the major features of which focus on the low carbon energy mix; firstly, the four pre-arranged coal-fired power plants are excluded due to their high GHG emissions, the result of which eventually decreases the ratio of the coal-fired power plants

  • A single nuclear power plant is constructed in a pair according to its fundamental design, meaning two nuclear power units are required instead of 1.2 units

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Summary

Introduction

According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Report Volume 5, greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities had increased the average global temperature by 0.85 ◦C from 1880 to 2012. Assuming Business As Usual (BAU) is kept as the projection, the official target from the 16th Conference of the Parties, which is to restrain the increase of the average global temperature by 2 ◦C until 2050, seems highly impossible in reality, recommending international involvement with aggressive GHG reduction policies. The previous international attempts of GHG reduction had a serious limitation in terms of its effectiveness because China and the United States, the first and second largest GHG emitters, did not participate in GHG reduction activities from the promises of the Kyoto Protocol [1]. The Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments require submissions of Intended National Determined Contributions (INDC), including China and the United States, unlike Kyoto Protocol. The Act on Allocation and Trading of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Allowances was passed in Korea’s National Assembly and, by 2015, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme will be implemented

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