Fear of the Future in the Modern World: A Russian Case

Abstract

Introduction The subject of this paper is fear of negative events and processes of social significance, and fear of catastrophes - specific events which threaten almost all people in given area, city, region, country or the world, with extremely negative consequences, fear of the highest magnitude. Fear and Catastrophism in Social Science While fear in general, and fear of catastrophes in particular, has played an important role in religion and philosophy, it has not attracted significant attention from social science. Meanwhile, conventional wisdom assumes that the mood and the behavior of individuals, groups and the nation as whole depends very much on feelings about the future, be they optimistic or pessimistic. Thus it is surprising that, since their emergence in the 1970's, studies on quality of life have mostly ignored the role of fear in human life and its impact on the quality of life (see Campbell, 1971; Campbell, Converse and Rogers, 1976; Andrews, 1986; Allard, 1972). It is especially surprising because these studies were oriented to find out, among other things, what people felt about various elements of their lives. In addition, the number of sociologists whose studies are devoted to catastrophe is very limited. Most of them are concerned with post-catastrophic situations, such as how societies, organizations and communities respond to technological or ecological disasters (see Kreps, 1978; 1985; Perry, 1985; Rose, 1982; Quarantelli, 1978; 1980) or how individuals and the public adapt to disasters (see Green, 1985; Kurian, 1991; Quarantelli, 1985; Slottje, 1991; Walker and Rosser, 1993). As far as I know, few publications are concerned with the of catastrophe in general, except for the outstanding work of Enrico Quarantelli (see Kreps, 1985; 1978; Prince, 1920; Quarantelli, 1954, 1981). Fewer still are concerned with catastrophic mentality as social issue (see, for example, Wolfenstein, 1957). Even literature that deals with collective behavior and social movements only occasionally raises the issue, and it is never really considered an important social phenomenon. Only in the studies of crowd behavior, including panic, does fear as significant social problem emerge as main issue. However, recent studies in this area pertain only to specific cases and not to the catastrophic mentality of people in normal times (see King, 1990; McClelland, 1989; McPhail, 1991; Rachman and Maser, 1988, Wittchen, 1986). Even Erich Goode and Nachman Ben-Yehuda's seminal book Moral Panics (1994), the recent publication closest to the subject of this paper, deals only with single cases concerning fears which emerge as result of crusades (against alcoholism, sexual assault, homosexuality, and child molestation) organized mainly by moral entrepreneurs. Generally speaking, then, Samuel Prince's statement of seven decades ago still holds true: catastrophic thinking remains a virgin field in sociology (see Prince, 1920:13). Fears in Society Fear, in variety of forms, is fundamental feature of life for practically every individual, group and society, and has an important function. Fear, whether reasonable or not, serves like physical pain as danger signal about potential and real threats to the well-being, and even the very existence, of the individual, group or society. While there is general subconscious basalt - to use Carl Yung's term - r existential fear, most fears which circulate in society are of specific character, usually indicating clear source of danger. Fears of this type in the contemporary world include: technological catastrophes; large-scale terrorist attacks; nuclear war; total war or invasion by neighbors; various international crises; civil and inter-ethnic war and many others. The character of each threat is so different that it makes it virtually impossible to design comprehensive general theory of fear, phenomenon in which emotional and cognitive components are strongly intertwined. …