Farmers’ adoption of waste-to-energy valorisation as a circular economy pathway for sustainability transitions in Nigeria

Policies, actors and sustainability transition pathways: A study of the EU’s energy policy mix

This paper presents a novel methodological approach that integrates strategic foresight with sustainability transitions frameworks to explore how different forms of agency shape transition pathways. The research methodology employed include the development of foresight scenarios addressing sustainability, the X-curve framework for mapping possible transition pathways for a sustainable EU 2050, and agency analysis to identify strategic areas of interventions and understanding systemic policy mixes over time. This work was performed in the context of the preparation of the European Commission’s Annual Strategic Foresight Report 2023. Additionally, through empirical application across three distinct contexts, this paper demonstrates how strategic foresight can generate actionable knowledge for sustainability transitions while maintaining methodological rigor. The study advances the theoretical understanding of agency in sustainability transitions by showing how different actors can be strategically engaged through interventions aimed at shaping, navigating, and orchestrating transition pathways over time. Our findings reveal that successful transitions require balancing the agency of established institutional actors with emerging stakeholders who may lack formal authority but bring crucial perspectives and capabilities. The study emphasizes the importance of agency of multiple actors in sustainability transitions, highlighting their capacity to act and collaborate in shaping a sustainable future. The conclusions and recommendations stress the need for strong government leadership, multilevel coordination, the roll out of systemic policy mixes and a new social contract underpinned by democratic governance. The flexibility of the methodological approach allows adaptation to different institutional contexts through co-creation while maintaining coherence in how agency dealt with. This research contributes to both theoretical development and practical policy implementation by providing a structured yet adaptable strategic foresight approach to investigate how different forms of agency can effectively be combined to drive sustainability transitions.

In most countries, energy resources and electricity generation have become the engine of economic growth. This study analyses effective and sustainable energy transition pathways and supply and highlights the commitments of the 2015 Paris Agreement by the United States of America in combating the challenges of global warming. The transition pathways are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and advance worldwide temperature to a 1.5 °C average. Again, justifiable transition pathways mostly include energy savings on the demand side, generation efficiency, and fossil fuel substitution by various renewable energy sources and low-carbon nuclear. Renewable energy conversion approach to constantly remain precise strategic and beneficial, policy initiatives are necessary to steer the global electricity transition toward a sustainable energy and electricity scheme. In furtherance, the estimation of electricity output in emerging and industrialized economies, output, and demand projections affect economic planning and decision-making. Electricity generation and consumption impact the rate of technological advancement, GDP growth, industrialization, and infrastructural development. Most macroeconomic variables are reliant on sustainable electricity, including GDP, population, gross capital formation, and CO2 emissions. The electricity market therefore influences these macroeconomic variables. The relationship between the consumption of electricity and the emission of CO2 depends on the sources of electric energy generation. Electricity produced from renewable and sustainable sources emits virtually zero greenhouse gases. In terms of GDP and the formation of total capital, increasing the use of electricity leads to a positive effect. In addition, population growth requires the production of more electricity to satisfy the marginal demand resulting from population expansion.

A review of dynamic changes in complementarities and transition pathways toward distributed energy resource–based electrical system

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.

South Africa's electricity sector is currently pursuing a transition to sustainable energy. This paper aims to analyze the various frameworks pertaining to sustainability transitions, and more specifically, sustainable energy transitions (SETs); to subsequently develop a set of criteria for the South African regime by which to measure the country's progress towards sustainability (in the energy sector) throughout the transition pathway. SETs are vastly complex and require multi-disciplinary approaches to address societies' developmental and economic growth needs, while simultaneously addressing climate change challenges and resource constraints. Sustainability transition frameworks address multiple issues, such as: the link between energy production and consumption, and the economy; the move to sustainable technology adoption from socio-technical contexts; as well as a paradigm shift for policy-making and various other aspects that need to be addressed when transitioning to sustainability. From these insights, a set of criteria consisting of seven aspects for South Africa's electricity sector regime were developed, which includes: energy efficiency, CO2 emission reduction, economic competitiveness, supply security and generation, resilience, innovation and technology, and politics and public acceptance.

Transition pathways, transition failure, and sustainable transition in developing countries: Insights from wind turbines in Iran

• Sustainable transition research lacks attention to interactions between missions and socio-technical system elements. • The Dutch circular plastic packaging sector is locked in the recycling transition pathway. • The recycling lock-in is caused by long-established infrastructure, supportive policy and ingrained producer and consumer habits. • Lock-ins are persistent and hamper alternative pathways, even within mission settings. • Active mission governance is needed to stimulate a multitude of dominant and emergent circular transition pathways. Societal mission-oriented policies are shaped by the socio-technical systems in which they are embedded, yet their openness to multiple transition pathways, particularly when a dominant one exists, is underexplored. This study addresses this gap through a qualitative case study of the circular plastic packaging mission in the Netherlands. We analyse the interaction between the mission and socio-technical system dynamics across three circular transition pathways: recycling (the locked-in pathway), reuse and refuse (emerging pathways in the circular transition). Our findings identify three types of lock-ins (infrastructure and technology, institutional, and behavioural) that strongly favour recycling as a dominant pathway in the circular transition, persisting also after the mission's implementation. We contribute to the transitions literature by showing that mission policies can gradually reshape institutions and reduce lock-in. However, it also underscores the necessity of active mission governance to promote and activate less dominant pathways that align with societal goals.

IntroductionAchieving sustainability transitions requires substantial policy changes, often driven by coalitions of actors advocating for institutional change and transformative agendas. While the transitions literature highlights the importance of coalition coordination, the underlying processes remain insufficiently understood. This study explores the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to derive insights into the coordination and dynamics of advocacy coalitions relevant to sustainability transitions.MethodsA systematic review of ACF literature was conducted, encompassing an initial corpus of over 700 articles and refining it to a final set of 45 documents. These documents were analyzed using qualitative coding to identify key factors influencing coalition coordination and to conceptualize coalition dynamics across the phases of sustainability transitions.ResultsThe review identifies four categories of factors shaping coalition coordination: prerequisites for coordination, reasons to coordinate, instrumental factors that influence coordination, and internal organization of coalitions. Additionally, it outlines how coordination patterns evolve across four sustainability transition phases, leading to the development of a typology that integrates dynamics within coalitions and across coalitions with two transition pathways: technological substitution and reconfiguration.DiscussionThis study advances the understanding of the political processes underpinning sustainability transitions by integrating ACF insights into transition studies. It underscores the importance of belief systems, resource access, and trust in fostering effective coalition coordination. The proposed typology offers a conceptual framework to guide future empirical research on coalition dynamics and their role in accelerating sustainability transitions.

Transition pathways approaches are increasingly being applied to reflect on sustainable, just and inclusive food system transitions and food and nutrition security (Wigboldus et al., 2021).Through the ‘Food security and valuing water’ research theme of the Knowledge Base program - Food and Water Security - of Wageningen Research (WR), stakeholders within the Ethiopian dairy sector have been engaged to explore the potential contribution of Ethiopia’s dairy sector towards healthy and nutritious diets through increased consumption of nutritious dairy products. In the process the “exploring transition pathways” approach and methodology, that was generated in the knowledge base programme, was applied within a specific context with relevant stakeholders. The methodological approach encompassed desk-top research, key informant interviews and interactive multi-stakeholder workshops. By building on and making use of the extensive network, in depth insights and rich experiences of the BRIDGE project1, which has been operating within the Ethiopian dairy sector for a good number of years, the process was strongly grounded in the reality of Ethiopia. Thanks to the BRIDGE project the process was able to engage key stakeholders in the interviews and workshops that took place. This report summarizes the learnings from the activities that took place throughout 2021 and 2022.This report touches on two main elements:1. Key insights and outcomes of the process.2. Learnings and applicability of the methodological approach for exploring food system transition pathways.By applying the approach “exploring transition pathways” to a specific case in Ethiopia, we conclude that the methodological steps in the approach support stakeholders and practitioners to think beyond what is already there and challenge entrenched assumptions regarding development trajectories.The approach provides guidelines for food system transition exploration processes. A core strength of the approach is its methodological capacity to guide multiple stakeholders and development practitioners in their exploration of transition pathways. This is achieved by diverting the focus from what is currently (im)possible and starting-off by visioning a desired future, without being limited by thoughts about how to realise the envisioned futures.The experience has shown that the approach can be tailored and be made fit-to-purpose by customizing it to a concrete food system change process. For proper application and continued learning it is valuable to continuously monitor and reflect, together with the project team, about the different experiences that stakeholders have throughout the methodological steps, as well as to reflect on the stakeholder engagement process in itself.

Building on the contributions to the article collection “The Governance of Sustainable Energy Transitions in the Global South “, this editorial offers a sketch for a research agenda on transitions research with a main focus on Africa. Still being ill-defined in its concrete contours, this research agenda engages with the central themes of heterogeneity, politics, and the material basis of energy transitions. In this editorial, we address both procedural and content-related questions. Regarding procedural questions, we inform about the context in which this collection emerged. On that, a workshop held in Accra in September 2019 was a key milestone. We contextualise the challenges that some workshop participants had with developing their contributions into publishable articles in the context of uneven academic support structures and knowledge hegemonies. Finally, we introduce the contributions to our article collection, emphasising how they connect and contribute to our draft research agenda. With regard to the content dimension, this article collection builds and proclaims the need for plural approaches to understanding energy transitions in Africa. A plurality of specific context conditions calls for pluralistic analytical perspectives. Not taking for granted hegemonic, western ways of understanding energy systems and explaining change, we rather depart from engagements with the diversity of changes that aggregate into transition pathways—a diversity that in the context of Africa is impossible to overlook. To implement such a pluralistic research agenda, scholars need more opportunities to network, exchange and publish.

Abstract. CIBUSmod 25.04 is an open-source, spatially disaggregated biophysical model designed to evaluate resource use and environmental impacts in agri-food systems on national and sub-national level under different transition pathways in terms of changes in demand and agricultural production methods. Developed within the Swedish Mistra Food Futures programme, CIBUSmod provides a flexible, modular framework for assessing food systems sustainability. It can integrate regionalised data on crop production, livestock systems and land use at arbitrary spatial resolution. In the model agricultural production is distributed regionally to meet an exogenous demand, while enforcing agronomic and biophysical constraints. Using Sweden as a case study, the model’s application is demonstrated by constructing and validating a baseline and conducting a scenario analysis. The results highlight CIBUSmod’s ability to quantify trade-offs in land use, nutrient flows, and greenhouse gas emissions across different transition pathways. The model is designed to be accessible, utilising Python and Jupyter Notebooks with Excel-based input data management. It is publicly available under the GNU GPLv3 licence. By enhancing transparency and usability in food systems modelling, CIBUSmod serves as a valuable tool for researchers to explore sustainable agri-food systems transitions at national and sub-national scales.

Which labour for the CE? An exploration of narratives on labour and circularity in Flanders

This paper argues for an integrative and transformative approach that connects localised product innovation, Product – Service System (PSS) integration, and macro-level systemic change through the situated and collaborative lens of co-design. Drawing on two long-term participatory action research (PAR) projects conducted between 2018 and 2023 in rural China, we examine how co-design practices evolved across multiple scales of intervention. Through retrospective cross-case synthesis, we identified a recurring trajectory: beginning with product-focused design, progressing through PSS development, and culminating in systemic engagement at institutional and governance levels. Based on this pattern, we propose the Co-Design-Driven Sustainability System (CDSS) framework, which conceptualises co-design as a dynamic, context-responsive process that bridges micro-level practices with broader sustainability transitions. As a practice-informed framework, it enhances understanding of how co-design can align diverse stakeholders, navigate value tensions, and catalyse systemic transformation by linking situated interventions to long-term transition goals. This study contributes to design and sustainability transition research by offering empirical insights from long-term PAR cases, a theoretical framework that integrates multi-scalar co-design into transition pathways, and a methodological approach combining action-based research with retrospective theory building. Future research should explore the CDSS framework’s applicability across diverse cultural and institutional contexts and assess its long-term systemic impacts.

Urban living labs (ULLs) are progressive forms of interventions that aim to fulfil the sustainability ambitions of cities and communities. They provide opportunities to translate new ideas into practice. The increasing interest among researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in understanding sustainability transitions (ST) has brought new forms of experimentation through which cities and communities can be governed. Recently, there has been increasing attention towards the concept of circular economy (CE). This term promises the creation of distinct city systems in which material flows can be managed efficiently. In this article, we explore how ULLs can become pathways of sustainability transition towards innovative city systems from a circular economy perspective. By adopting a series of systematic analyses, i.e., multiple correspondence analysis and content analysis, we demonstrate the main pathways of circular economy-oriented innovative city systems that have been used in the literature. As a result of this work, we identify the main pathways, namely knowledge production, policy making, co-creation, geographical embeddedness, urban transitions, networks of cooperation among institutions, culture change, and collaborative engagement.