Failure rate prediction in various life cycle phases: A framework for updating

Abstract

Failure rate prediction provides a quantitative basis for decision-making regarding the adequacy of a design from the early phases in the life cycle. In real-life operation and maintenance, the operating and environmental conditions may change compared to what was assumed by the producer in the design and development phases. Changes in these conditions and unexpected disruptions may make the current predicted failure rate inaccurate and updating is required as a response to such disruptions and changes. This paper discusses the need for failure rate prediction in the various phases of a product's life cycle and proposes a framework for updating the failure rate prediction to obtain a more realistic prediction. The failure rate updating is based on the data acquired during the period since the previous updating and changes of the status of a set of reliability influencing factors.