Factors Related to State Lockdown Policies: a Comparison of Jobs Lost with Deaths from COVID-19 by State

Abstract

The COVID-19 debate in the United States has become more contentious in late April and early May 2020. On one side are voices arguing there is no end in sight for the risks associated with COVID-19 and that lockdown and stay at home policies need to persist. A divergence of opinion regarding these policies formed largely along party lines. Blue state governors emphasized the importance of continued lockdown policies and social distance policies. Red state governors, while still being concerned about health and safety, were recommending the reopening of the U.S. economy. Recent studies such as Tellis, Sood and Sood (2020) have identified political affiliation as a primary driver for policy decisions in the COVID-19 era. This study examines the role of political affiliation both in the advice governors provide for lockdown vs reopen the economy. Also considered is the relative impact of jobs lost over COVID-19 deaths. The study concludes that red states are paying a much higher relative price than blue states. For example, Hawaii has lost over 9,000 jobs for each of the 13 jobs lost. South Dakota has lost over 7,000 jobs for each of the 10 deaths attributed to COVID-19. In addition, this paper examines three troubling aspects of the data being used to justify lockdown measures and social distancing. Another reason for the undue burden being borne by red states is the fact that more than 88 percent of COVID-19 cases have been in blue states. Finally, a brief consideration of the massive amounts of U.S. debt being accumulated by the Federal Reserve and the risks for the U.S. financial condition is also briefly discussed.