Factors explaining the dispersal of Hendra virus disease in South-East Queensland

Abstract

Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 following the outbreak of a new disease fatally affecting horses and humans in South-east Queensland. The disease kills 70% of the infected horses and under some circumstances the virus is spread to humans who have had close contact with the infected horses. Fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) commonly known as flying foxes have been identified as the natural host of the virus. A preliminary analysis of the incidents and the flying fox roosting sites revealed a strong relationship between the temporary and seasonal roosting sites in the South-east Queensland. The aim of this paper is to determine the potential factors that can explain the dispersal of HeV incidents in the study area. Based on the preliminary results, a further analysis was done on the roosting sites by considering factors such as the species of flying foxes, foraging range and pregnancy period. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) revealed significant clustering of P. alecto and P. scapulatus species. Kernel density estimation analysis helped in identifying a strong relationship between P. alecto & P. scapulatus species density and the outbreak events in the study area. Buffer analysis established an initial relationship between P. alecto & P. poliocephalus species birth periods and the incidents. Ordinary least-squares regression identified P. poliocephalus species as statistically significant at a global context across the study area. Geographically weighted regression analysis was performed to study the local spatial variations of the explanatory variables. P. alecto & P. poliocephalus species exhibited a significant positive relationship in most of the regions where as pregnancy period variable exhibited a significant negative relationship to the HeV incidents in the study area.