Factors Affecting the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles for Commute Trips: An Analysis with the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Travel Surveys

Abstract

The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) may shape the future landscape of urban mobility. Although there is a growing literature on public opinions with regard to self-driving, little attention has been explicitly given to the commuters and their preferences for their commute trips. Using data from the 2015 and 2017 Puget Sound Regional Household Travel Studies, this study investigates the factors associated with employees’ propensity for using AVs. We develop a bivariate ordered probit model to jointly estimate the determinants of levels of interest in (i) commuting alone using AVs and (ii) commuting with others using shared AVs. Not surprisingly, it was found that current solo drivers are more likely to commute alone using AVs compared with other mode users. Significant differences were not found between current drivers and other commuters when it comes to the potential use of shared AVs. The results also reveal that, controlling for other factors, commuters surveyed in 2017 are less likely to be interested in shared AVs compared with their 2015 counterparts. The conclusion is that more planning efforts are needed to support the market penetration of shared AVs.