Factors Affecting Demand and Supply in the Housing Market: A Study on Three Major Cities in Turkey

Abstract

This paper aims to identify the economic factors that significantly affect the demand for and supply of housing in three major cities in Turkey, such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. This study uses monthly data ranges from January 2010 to December 2020 because of the limited housing price data from each city. For smooth measurement, the logarithm of all data except measurements of nominal interest rate, real interest rate and inflation is used. This research uses the Co-integration Analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to investigate the macroeconomic variables’ effects on the demand and supply. Mortgage credit volume, as a dependent variable, is influenced by real per capita GDP, real house prices, projected inflation, and nominal interest rates. On the contrary, the building site is used as a dependent variable on the supply side that is determined by the real housing price, the real interest rate, and the real cost of construction. In the VECM model, the mortgage credit volume and constriction cost were dominated by error correction variables, showing the adjustment of disequilibrium towards an equilibrium point. In the case of Ankara, supply-side variables have a long-term relationship. Both housing demand and supply-related factors have a long-term impact on the housing market in Istanbul and Izmir. Given a significant p-value, the coefficient of C1 derived from system equations is negative.