FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ADRIATIC-IONIAN INITIATIVE COUNTRIES

The overall evolution of the economy is usually appreciated by two macroeconomic indicators GDP and GVA, which by their value gives us clear information on the state of the economy. Gross domestic product (GDP), the main macroeconomic aggregate of national accounts, is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units and which corresponds to the value of goods and services produced by these units for final consumption. Gross Value Added (GVA) is the balance of the production account and is measured as the difference between the value of the goods and services produced (valued at basic prices) and the intermediate consumption (valued at the buyer's prices), thus representing the new value created in the production process. GVA is calculated before calculating the consumption of fixed capital. Since 1990, we have been confronted with a major restructuring of the way GDP and GVA are created due to the intensive process of restructuring the economy. In the paper we will analyze the basis of the processing of national statistical data, how the tourism component of the tertiary sector contributes to the formation of the aggregate indicators presented above. In 2016, Romania had a GDP of 169.6 billion euros, below the Czech level (174.4 billion euros), Greece (175.9 billion euros) and Portugal (184.9 billion euros). Data series published by the European Statistical Office show that in the first quarter of this year, Romania's GDP adjusted for seasonal influences was 44.2 billion euros, while the value of GDP- Greece was 43.96 billion euros, the Czech Republic's 44.85 billion euros, and Portugal's 47.37 billion euros. In terms of GVA training, Romania is included in the European Union's Statistical Yearbook 201 6 as the country with the largest contributions to the Gross Value Added in the economy from industry, agriculture and construction, simultaneously with the lowest Public sector contribution (administration, defense, education, health and social welfare, etc.) Although professional, scientific and technical activities have seen the largest increase in the share of Gross Value Added training, they remain below the average of 10.4% Registered on the whole EU. There is an increase in the art, entertainment, recreation and other activities related to tourism - which brought us near the European customs and contributed to the "structural convection" of the Romanian economy. Touristic activity, particularly complex, with upstream and downstream implications, generates a tourism industry, whose components contribute to the formation of GDP and national Gross Value Added We will analyze the share of tourism in Romania's Gross Domestic Product in the period 2008-2014, gross value added in the tourism industry direct gross value added from tourism and gross domestic product of tourism in 2013 and 2014.
 
 Keywords: macroeconomic indicators, tourism industry, Gross Domestic Product, Gross Value Added economy

Economic Vulnerabilities and Livelihoods: Impact of <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 in Fiji and Vanuatu

T he condition of the Indonesian economy in 2008 experienced a slight upheaval due to the global economic crisis and is currently in a stage of development where the population is increasing, the workforce is increasing and demand for goods is also increasing. Indonesia is projected to experience a phase of demographic bonus which can be a threat if the government does not prepare well. At present the objectives of the Macro economy are Economic Growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of government spending and the money supply on Indonesia's gross domestic product from 2004-2018. To explain the effect of government spending and the partial money supply on gross domestic product, this study uses time series data from 2004-2018. The variables to be observed are government expenditure and the amount of money in circulation and gross domestic product. Data was obtained from Bank Indonesia, the BPS-Statistic Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance. This study shows the results that Government Expenditures and Circulating Money Significantly Influence Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product in 2004-2018.. Keywords: Government expenditure, money supply and gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia

O-17 Are macroeconomic and health expenditure indicators correlated with the capacity for liver transplantation in Latin American Countries? THE ALEH Special Interest Group, international Survey 2020

Background The gross domestic product (GDP) of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states can be used to determine their overall economic growth. In order to increase GDP, all emerging nations in Southeast Asia are stating to depend on foreign direct investment (FDI), the tourism industry, international visitors visiting ASEAN member nations banking credit, and low inflation rates. High inflation is a problem that developed and developing countries will definitely face. One of the problems faced by ASEAN member countries is that most of the member countries are in the developing country category. For ASEAN member countries, high inflation levels will encourage economic instability. GDP is less than optimal because of these classic problems in developing countries so that economic growth is not as planned. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which ASEAN established, is seen as a way to reduce unemployment, alleviate poverty by boosting the travel and tourism industry and increasing investment, as well as to offer or distribute credit to businesses at low interest rates in order to boost GDP. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze how the GDP of ASEAN member nations is affected by FDI, foreign visitors, bank credit, and inflation. s: We analyzed panel data for seven ASEAN members from 2002 to 2020. FDI, foreign tourists, banking credit, and inflation are the research factors examined as independent variables that have an impact on GDP, the dependent variable. Results The study’s findings indicate that while inflation has a large negative impact on GDP, FDI, foreign tourism, and bank credit have a considerable positive impact on GDP. Conclusions FDI, foreign tourists, bank credit, and inflation have a significant influence on GDP in ASEAN member countries.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states can be used to determine their overall economic growth. In order to increase GDP, all emerging nations in Southeast Asia are stating to depend on foreign direct investment (FDI), the tourism industry, international visitors visiting ASEAN member nations banking credit, and low inflation rates. High inflation is a problem that developed and developing countries will definitely face. One of the problems faced by ASEAN member countries is that most of the member countries are in the developing country category. For ASEAN member countries, high inflation levels will encourage economic instability. GDP is less than optimal because of these classic problems in developing countries so that economic growth is not as planned. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which ASEAN established, is seen as a way to reduce unemployment, alleviate poverty by boosting the travel and tourism industry and increasing investment, as well as to offer or distribute credit to businesses at low interest rates in order to boost GDP. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze how the GDP of ASEAN member nations is affected by FDI, foreign visitors, bank credit, and inflation. s: We analyzed panel data for seven ASEAN members from 2002 to 2020. FDI, foreign tourists, banking credit, and inflation are the research factors examined as independent variables that have an impact on GDP, the dependent variable. The study's findings indicate that while inflation has a large negative impact on GDP, FDI, foreign tourism, and bank credit have a considerable positive impact on GDP. FDI, foreign tourists, bank credit, and inflation have a significant influence on GDP in ASEAN member countries.

This study seeks to examine the impact of financial deepening on economic growth in Nigeria. An annual data covering the period of 1990 – 2017 was used . In other to test the objective of the study, multiple regression techniques were used, also, error correction model was conducted to test the long run equilibrium of the model. Findings revealed that the variable has a long run effect on economic growth since the ECM result reveals a negative and significant relationship. Also based on the short run test, the result reveals that there is a negative and insignificant relationship between the ratio of credit to private sector to gross domestic product (CPS_GDP) and gross domestic product (GDP). T here is also a negative and insignificant relationship between inflation rate (INFL) and gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, the result shows that there is a positive and insignificant relationship between the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gross domestic product and gross domestic product (GDP). Also, it was found that there is a negative and insignificant relationship between the ratio of money supply to gross domestic product in the economy and gross domestic product (GDP). Based on the findings, we recommended that government policy should motive financial institutions to grant low cost loans and advances to private investors and to monitor the use of the loan in the economy. Government should also ensure that they create enabling environment for domestic investors to invest funds. Finally, the government yearly budgets should be directed towards capital expenditure rather than recurrent expenditure in the country

During last 10 years some G20 countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static linear panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of G20 countries including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Republic of Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 18 (unemployment rate variable of India was not available on our data set, therefore India was excluded from analysis) of G20 members (cross sectional units). The effects of 11 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined by using panel data series. The findings of this paper would help G20 countries and investors for creating more effective macroeconomic strategies. For the government side, future rises, falls, and turning points of the macro indicators puts into perspective the effects of government policy created to deal with them. For the investors’ side, future values might increase the possibility of diligent investor in the financial market.

The research presented in this study, investigates chiefly the causal relationship between oil prices and key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria in a multivariate framework using times series data from 1980 to 2010. To examine whether there is prediction between oil prices and macroeconomic indicators (inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and real gross domestic product) as well as the impact of oil prices on the applied macroeconomic indicators, this research adopted the Granger causality and the ordinary least squares respectively. After ensuring data stationarity, the results suggest that in the short run, changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) is not influenced by oil price volatility, nor do we find evidence of influence on key macroeconomic variables. Again the findings indicate that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between oil price and the Nigerian Gross domestic product. Overall oil prices have no significant impact on real GDP and exchange rate in Nigeria. The result suggests that Nigeria has a special case of the Dutch Disease, where a country’s seeming good forutne proves ultimately detrimental to its economy. Key words: Oil and Gas, Gross Domestic Product, causality, macroeconomic indicators.

This study addresses the challenge of nowcasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in data-scarce environments, with a focus on Syria, a country facing significant economic and political instability. Utilizing a dataset from 2010 to 2022, three machine learning algorithms Elastic Net, Ridge, and Lasso were applied to model GDP dynamics based on macroeconomic indicators, commodity prices, and high-frequency internet search data from Google Trends. Among these, the Lasso regression model, noted for its variable selection and sparsity promotion, proved most effective in capturing Syria's complex economic realities, achieving the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). This accuracy highlights the Lasso model's capability to identify robust economic relationships despite limited data, thereby reducing overfitting and improving forecast generalizability. The study underscores the significant impact of non-traditional indicators, such as Google Trends Agriculture (GTA) and Google Trends Consumption (GTC), on GDP growth, offering valuable insights for policymakers and analysts in data-scarce environments. The findings support the use of machine learning techniques, particularly Lasso regression, as powerful tools for economic forecasting, enhancing informed decision-making in challenging settings.

Migrant workers have participated in promoting economic growth and prosperity and the generation of wealth in countries of destination. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which is comprised of six countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman have been historically and traditionally job market for Pakistani workers. Labor migration and its relationship to economic growth and employment have received increasing attention because of increasing demand for labor, higher salaries, economic and political stability. Using a case study, we focus on the impact and relationship of labor migration with macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, and inflation rate. Limited employment opportunities, the weak economy, and political instability are the factors leading labor migration from Pakistan. Consequently, the government of Pakistan considered labor migration primarily as an employment sector and encourage labor migration to solve economic problems in the country. We analyze the impact of labor migration on (GDP), Inflation rate and unemployment in Pakistan with the help of time series data from 1971-2016. The result to have showed a positive and significant relationship between labor migration and GDP, while a negative but significant relationship with unemployment. On the other hand, there is no relationship between labor migration and inflation rate. we found that the GCC economic crises actually caused significant influence on labor migration in the case of Pakistan.

The goal of this study is to examine how political stability impacts Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Political stability is a crucial factor in a country's economic development, because it can affect the investment climate, economic growth, and people's welfare. The Central Bureau of Statistics and other relevant organizations' secondary data were used as secondary data sources in this study's qualitative descriptive analysis of the literature. The data collected covers a specific relevant time period and includes indicators of political stability and GDP. The results of the analysis show that political stability has a significant influence on GDP in Indonesia. High political stability tends to create conditions conducive to sustainable economic growth. This is reflected in increased investment, expansion of the industrial sector, and increase in national income. In the Indonesian context, good political stability can increase investor confidence, both domestic and foreign, to invest in various economic sectors. In addition, political stability also provides legal certainty and consistent policies, which help create a favorable investment climate. The government needs to maintain political stability through actions that promote inclusive political participation, fair law enforcement, and consistent and transparent policies. These efforts will strengthen investor confidence, stimulate investment, and promote sustainable economic growth.

The article presents the results of an analysis of the impact of the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the EU and a group of countries that joined them in March 2014, which, as we know, were constantly extended and supplemented with further restrictive and prohibitive measures. Auto solved two specific research tasks. This is, first, the definition of channels for sanctions to influence the dynamics of Russia’s economic development. Second, the assessment of the time and strength of the negative impact of sanctions on the values of such macroeconomic indicators as: foreign direct investment and investment (FDI) in fixed assets; fixed assets and their commissioning, gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production; consumer price indices, real monetary income of the population and final consumption. The use of economic and statistical tools made it possible to determine the years of the most severe impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the listed macroeconomic indicators, which in a certain part are also officially approved indicators of the state of economic security of the country. The similarity of channels and results of sanctions, on the one hand, and global financial and economic crises, on the other hand, is also established.

Economic Failure and Change in Sudan

Exchange rate measures the value of a certain foreign exchange from other foreign exchange's perspective. As the condition of economic changes, the exchange rate ma change substantially. The decrease of the value of a foreign exchange is called depreciation and the increase value of a foreign exchange is called appreciation.The equilibrium exchange rate will change along with the change of demand and supply. Factors causing the change of demand and supply curve among others are the amount of money supply, relative gross domestic product (GDP) and the level of relative interest rate.The research is aimed to analyze the influence of variables of Indonesian money supply, American money supply, Indonesian real Gross Domestic Product, American real Gross Domestic Product, deposits interest rate and LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rates on SDR Deposit) both in short and long terms.One of the ways to analyze the influence of short term and long term is by developing the dynamic model. In this research, the analyzes of dynamic model was conducted with ENGEL-GRANGER ERROR CORRECTION MODEL approach which was developed by ENGEL-GRANGER (1987) based on GRANGER REPRESENTATION THEOREM.The ECM analyzes was chosen not only because of its ability to solve the problem of time series which is not stationer, and spurious regression and spurious correlation in the economic analyses but also its ability to discuss the consistence of empiric model with economic theory. Beside, ECM concept is also thought to be more realistic in observing the development of economics variables from the result of the analyzes during the time of observation. It was known that long-term exchange rate is influenced by Indonesia real Gross Domestic Product and the number of Indonesian money supply. The variable of Indonesian real Gross Domestic showed the significant result and the signal test was convenient with the theory. The variable which influence" short term exchange rate are the amount of Indonesian money supply, Indonesian real Gross Domestic Product, and Indonesian deposit interest rate. The three variables showed the significant result and the signal test was convenient with the theory.