Facteurs monétaires et stabilité économique

Abstract

Monetary factors affecting economic stability The criteria of economic growth and the meaning of stability are defined. The connections between stability and growth are then examined. It is noted that two schools of thought exist in this matter : one refuses all short-run instability, the other finds that instability and growth are part of the same process and inseparable. As regards the monetary aspects of short-run fluctuations it is significant that fluctuations in real magnitudes and in money flows occur together and that most economists agree that the proximate causes of fluctuations are to be found in expenditure changes. This does not mean , of course , that monetary factors alone can avoid fluctuations. This point of view is illustrated by an analysis of the «real» and «monetary » factors in instability and of their interactions. The latter point has tended to be neglected in much modern work on the cycle. For example, the role of monetary factors in depressions is highly important. The influence of credit expansion during the up-swing is also fundamental. It is main¬ tained that the elimination of monetary factors in the trade cycle would in fact remove most of the causes of instability. Unfortunately, their elimination is not likely to be complete and the cycle will therefore remain. In the international sphere in particular the importance of monetary causes of instability cannot be stressed too much.