Eyeing the Beholder

The article presents an analysis of contemporary British military-political strategy in the Baltic region. Since 2014, there has been a notable increase in British presence in the area, leading to multiple security risks for Russia, particularly since 2022. This is due to the fact that the UK has increasingly linked its national security threats to Russia’s policy towards Ukraine, as well as in the Black Sea and Baltic regions. By focusing on Russia’s positions in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, the UK has defined its security priorities, explicitly connecting them to countering “threats from Russia and preventing Russia from gaining strategic advantages as a result of the situation in Ukraine,” as clearly stated in the 2023 Security Review. It is no coincidence that British military strategists have started emphasizing the interconnectedness of the Baltic and Black Sea regions, as well as the Baltic and Arctic regions, highlighting the necessity of ensuring security in one part by addressing security challenges in others —primarily by limiting Russia’s influence. Through an analysis of key British security documents within the framework of the regional security complex theory, the author demonstrates how the Baltic Sea region has become a crucial link for British military strategists, connecting the Far North and Eastern Europe. The aim of the article is to determine how the UK’s security interests are connected to and pursued through its interactions with the Baltic Sea region countries. To achieve this, the following research objectives have been set: to analyse the conceptual and strategic goals of the UK in the field of security and the implementation of its national interests; to outline the role and significance of the Baltic Sea region within the UK’s broader international security strategy; and to identify specific tactical approaches employed by the UK to advance its national interests through cooperation with NATO countries in the region.

The Baltic Sea catchment area extends from the upper course of the Elbe in the Czech Republic to northernmost Lapland where the Tornionjoki river (Sw. Torneälven = Lake Torne) marks the border between Finland and Sweden today. This article concentrates on the coastal regions of the sea and discusses a mutual dialogue between climate and man. Oxygen isotope 18O and hydrogen isotope 2H in the layers of polar ice sheets indicate climate change in the time span of thousands, even tens of thousands, of years. In northern areas, much climatologic information is based on polar ice drilling data from Greenland. The influence of climate changes on human subsistence is clearly visible in pollen data from the numerous ponds and swamps in the Baltic Sea coastal zone. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of carbon remains in archaeological materials (such as the crusts of ceramic pieces) are used to build detailed chronological sequences. Human adaption to conditions dictated by nature is usually interpreted as innovation and progress in prehistory. But numerous raw materials, once used, cannot be replaced, while land exploitation is often followed by side effects such as erosion and eutrophication. For example, the Neolithic “revolution”—the beginning of crop cultivation and large-scale cattle breeding—is an example of such changes in southern Europe from ca. 6,000 bce. Between ca. 200 bce and 100 ce, during the Early Iron Age, the climate was relatively warm here. Local iron production expanded in the Baltic Sea region and allowed effective slash-and-burn crop cultivation for the first time in prehistory. Since then, human activity has caused damage to forests all around the Baltic Sea. A colder phase followed in 100–600 ce. Even today slight changes in annual temperature have great impact on subsistence in areas with harsh climate conditions, such as close to the Polar Circle. An abrupt and radical fall of temperature surely caused severe difficulties. Hunter-gatherers had to find secondary food resources while societies which were strongly dependent on one single base for economy, like agriculture, had even greater difficulties. In the southern part of the Baltic Sea sphere, considerable areas of land were under cultivation at that time. Harvest failures led to famines. A climate catastrophe, probably caused by volcanic eruption, adversely impacted urban, peasant, nomadic, and hunting populations all over the northern hemisphere in 535–536 ce. Recent archaeological studies and AMS samples have proven there was a demographic crisis in the northern part of the Baltic Sea. Soon after 600 ce, the climate became milder again, and the following centuries were warmer than almost any period during Holocene: the warm phase from 800 to ca.1050 ce perfectly matches a historical and archaeological era: the Viking Period. The Middle Ages and early post-medieval period were relatively mild and human-friendly times. But this was followed by the so-called Little Ice Age, dated approximately to 1275–1870. With the beginning of industrialization in mid-19th century, human impact on climate became obvious all over the globe, and the Baltic Sea region is no exception.

Due to globalization and climate warming, the introduction and establishment of alien species has increased in recent years. The Mediterranean Sea Region (MSR) has not been explored as a common donor of alien species to the Baltic Sea Region (BSR); however, in the context of global warming, the BSR could be more suitable for alien species from the MSR. We evaluated the alien species of Mediterranean origin present in the BSR, with emphasis on aggressive, aquatic and terrestrial species spread in at least two countries of the BSR. Introduction pathways and the year of first record in the BSR were assessed for Mediterranean species. Using an analytical hierarchy process, we also performed a risk assessment for aggressive Mediterranean species in the BSR. In total, 6145 alien species were recorded in the BSR, but only 3033 species were verified. For 292 of these species, there is evidence of impact in the BSR, 10 of these (3.4%) are native to the MSR (six animals (Alphitophagus bifasciatus, Chrysolina americana, Tenebrio molitor, Limax maximus, Oxychilus draparnaudi, and Limacus flavus) and four plants (Linaria repens, Veronica filiformis, Prunus cerasifera, and Viola odorata)). Based on the risk assessment, eight of them represent moderate risk (L. flavus, L. maximus, O. draparnaudi, T. molitor, L. repens, V. filiformis, V. odorata, and P. cerasifera). In total, 715 freshwater and terrestrial species are spread in at least two countries of the BSR: 131 of them (18.3%) are of Mediterranean origin, all of them are terrestrial species (123 plants and eight animals). In general, Mediterranean plants were recorded earlier than animals in the BSR, as most of the plants were recorded in the years 1651–1750 and 1801–1900. Seven of the eight Mediterranean animals were introduced as contaminants of food, plants, or nursery material. Most of the Mediterranean plants in the BSR escaped from agriculture or horticulture (46.1%) or were transported as contaminants on animals or as seed contaminants (33.6%). This study is a first evaluation of the flux of species from the MSR to the BSR and will help the stakeholders to make decisions to prevent and control alien species in the BSR.

In the 90-s of the XX-th century under active participation of Russia mechanisms of international cooperation were formed in the regions of Baltic Sea, Barents, Caspian, Black Sea and Arctic region. At the beginning they had different aims. With the time these platforms have gone through evolution with their agendas and functional principles becoming alike. At the time of turbulent transition of the international affairs such associations can play a positive, consolidating role and contribute to further strengthening the ties between participating countries on pragmatic basis of finding solutions for common regional problems.

Abstract. Air pollution due to shipping is a serious concern for coastal regions in Europe. Shipping emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in air over the Baltic Sea are of similar magnitude (330 kt yr−1) as the combined land-based NOx emissions from Finland and Sweden in all emission sectors. Deposition of nitrogen compounds originating from shipping activities contribute to eutrophication of the Baltic Sea and coastal areas in the Baltic Sea region. For the North Sea and the Baltic Sea a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) will become effective in 2021; in accordance with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) target of reducing NOx emissions from ships. Future scenarios for 2040 were designed to study the effect of enforced and planned regulation of ship emissions and the fuel efficiency development on air quality and nitrogen deposition. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate the current and future air quality situation. The meteorological fields, the emissions from ship traffic and the emissions from land-based sources were considered at a grid resolution of 4×4 km2 for the Baltic Sea region in nested CMAQ simulations. Model simulations for the present-day (2012) air quality show that shipping emissions are the major contributor to atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the Baltic Sea. In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, with the introduction of the NECA, NOx emissions from ship traffic in the Baltic Sea are reduced by about 80 % in 2040. An approximate linear relationship was found between ship emissions of NOx and the simulated levels of annual average NO2 over the Baltic Sea in the year 2040, when following different future shipping scenarios. The burden of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the Baltic Sea region is predicted to decrease by 35 %–37 % between 2012 and 2040. The reduction in PM2.5 is larger over sea, where it drops by 50 %–60 % along the main shipping routes, and is smaller over the coastal areas. The introduction of NECA is critical for reducing ship emissions of NOx to levels that are low enough to sustainably dampen ozone (O3) production in the Baltic Sea region. A second important effect of the NECA over the Baltic Sea region is the reduction in secondary formation of particulate nitrate. This lowers the ship-related PM2.5 by 72 % in 2040 compared to the present day, while it is reduced by only 48 % without implementation of the NECA. The effect of a lower fuel efficiency development on the absolute ship contribution of air pollutants is limited. Still, the annual mean ship contributions in 2040 to NO2, sulfur dioxide and PM2.5 and daily maximum O3 are significantly higher if a slower fuel efficiency development is assumed. Nitrogen deposition to the seawater of the Baltic Sea decreases on average by 40 %–44 % between 2012 and 2040 in the simulations. The effect of the NECA on nitrogen deposition is most significant in the western part of the Baltic Sea. It will be important to closely monitor compliance of individual ships with the enforced and planned emission regulations.

Carbon Neutral Baltic Sea Region by 2050: Myth or Reality?

Water Quality Management and Climate Change Mitigation: Cost-effectiveness of Joint Implementation in the Baltic Sea Region

Abstract. This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 radiative forcing. The stationary control simulation's 1800-year long time series were used for stationary teleconnection and a 40-member ensemble from the period 1920–2100 is used for teleconnections during ongoing climate change. We analyzed seasonal temperature at a 2 m level, sea-level pressure, sea ice concentration, precipitation, geopotential height, and 10 m level wind speed. The Arctic was divided into seven areas. The Baltic Sea region climate has strong teleconnections with the Arctic climate; the strongest connections are with Svalbard and Greenland region. There is high seasonality in the teleconnections, with the strongest correlations in winter and the lowest correlations in summer, when the local meteorological factors are stronger. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate indices can explain most teleconnections in winter and spring. During ongoing climate change, the teleconnection patterns did not show remarkable changes by the end of the 21st century. Minor pattern changes are between the Baltic Sea region temperature and the sea ice concentration. We calculated the correlation between the parameter and its ridge regression estimation to estimate different Arctic regions' collective statistical connections with the Baltic Sea region. The seasonal coefficient of determination, R2, was highest for winter: for T2 m, R2=0.64; for sea level pressure (SLP), R2=0.44; and for precipitation (PREC), R2=0.35. When doing the same for the seasons' previous month values in the Arctic, the relations are considerably weaker, with the highest R2=0.09 being for temperature in the spring. Hence, Arctic climate data forecasting capacity for the Baltic Sea region is weak. Although there are statistically significant teleconnections between the Arctic and Baltic Sea region, the Arctic impacts are regional and mostly connected with climate indexes. There are no simple cause-and-effect pathways. By the end of the 21st century, the Arctic ice concentration has significantly decreased. Still, the general teleconnection patterns between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region will not change considerably by the end of the 21st century.

The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) faces several challenges, not the least in respect of the poor state of the sea itself. The regulatory framework governing the BSR is complex, displaying a multi-layered structure with up to five regulatory levels. The regulatory scene is also characterised by many features that could be assumed under the umbrella of post-national rulemaking. This article discusses features of the pluralisation of BSR regulation. The BSR regulatory framework is on the one hand rich with regulatory initiatives at the fringes of both ‘actorness’ and ‘ruleness’. On the other hand, the framework is characterised by cross-fertilisation between regulatory layers. Such interaction can add to the regulatory impact of normatively soft acts, but can also come with drawbacks. In any case, the article claims, a complete picture of BSR regulation can only be attained through an appreciation of normative pluralism. Keywords: Baltic Sea, Post-National Rulemaking, European Union, Soft-Law, Framework Instruments, Pluralism, Helcom

Previous studies of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGO) have primarily taken place within a nation-state perspective without considering multiple levels of politics and governance. Because environmental problems are usually cross-border phenomena, environmental movements must develop transnational features to play constructive roles in politics and governance. This study contributes to the theorizing and study of transnationalization of ENGOs by illuminating the different regional conditions for this process. The conditions for ENGOs to develop transnational collaboration are explored by comparing ENGOs from six countries in two macro-regions: Sweden, Germany, and Poland in the Baltic Sea region, and Italy, Slovenia, and Croatia in the Adriatic-Ionian Sea region. Grounded in the literatures on social movement theory and ENGO transnationalization, the study identifies how different national, macro-regional, and European institutional structures shape the conditions under which ENGOs develop cross-border collaborations, and demonstrate the importance of long-term and dynamic interplay between processes that occur at the domestic and transnational levels.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used to provide detailed regional to local information for climate change assessments, impact studies, and work on climate change adaptation. The Baltic Sea region is well suited for RCM evaluation due to its complexity and good availability of observations. Evaluation of RCM performance over the Baltic Sea region suggests that: • Given appropriate boundary conditions, RCMs can reproduce many aspects of the climate in the Baltic Sea region. • High resolution improves the ability of RCMs to simulate significant processes in a realistic way. • When forced by global climate models (GCMs) with errors in their representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and/or sea surface conditions, performance of RCMs deteriorates. • Compared to GCMs, RCMs can add value on the regional scale, related to both the atmosphere and other parts of the climate system, such as the Baltic Sea, if appropriate coupled regional model systems are used. Future directions for regional climate modeling in the Baltic Sea region would involve testing and applying even more high-resolution, convection permitting, models to generally better represent climate features like heavy precipitation extremes. Also, phenomena more specific to the Baltic Sea region are expected to benefit from higher resolution (these include, for example, convective snowbands over the sea in winter). Continued work on better describing the fully coupled regional climate system involving the atmosphere and its interaction with the sea surface and land areas is also foreseen as beneficial. In this respect, atmospheric aerosols are important components that deserve more attention.

Despite the significant reduction of phosphorus (P) discharge in the Baltic Sea in the last decades, obtained through the implementation of some approaches within the Helsinki Convention, eutrophication is still considered the biggest problem for the Baltic Sea environment. Consequently, the reduction of P load is an urgent need to solve, but the complexity of both the environmental and legislative context of the area makes this process difficult (more than in the past). Eutrophication is an intricate issue requiring a proper framework of governance that is not easy to determine in the Baltic Sea Region where the needs of several different countries converge. To identify the most suitable strategy to reduce the eutrophication in the Baltic Sea, the InPhos project (no. 17022, 2018–2019, funded by the European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT) Raw Materials) adopted a holistic approach considering technical, political, economic, environmental and social aspects of P management. With the aims to raise awareness about the P challenge, foster the dialogue among all the stakeholders, and find solutions already developed in other countries (such as Germany and Switzerland) to be transferred in the Baltic Sea Region, the InPhos project consortium applied the methodology proposed in this paper, consisting of three main phases: (i) analysis of the available technologies to remove P from waste streams that contribute to eutrophication; (ii) analysis of the main streams involving P in Baltic Sea countries to highlight the potential of more sustainable and circular P management; (iii) study of the current context (e.g., already-existing initiatives and issues). This approach allowed us to identify four categories of recommendations and practical actions proposed to improve P management in the Baltic Sea region. During the project, the consortium mainly addressed social aspects. Following steps beyond the project will be more quantitative to determine the techno-economic feasibility of circular P management in selected demo cases in the region.

The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) has long been considered a model case of a cooperative subregion at the fringes of the European Union (EU) (see Tassinari 2005). Efforts to ameliorate dividing lines along the Baltic rim date back to the Cold War, when the Helsinki process set in motion a rapprochement between East and West. In the post-Cold War period, cooperation in the area further intensified, resulting in a gradual “thickening” of the institutional framework. Successively, myriad cooperative platforms were established, which together form the substrate of BSR regionalism. With consequent rounds of EU enlargement, the Baltic Sea has effectively become an “internal EU sea” (Ganzle 2011, 1)—with one important exception, the Russian Federation. The presence of the latter is consequential as, by means of incorporating Russia, the BSR spans across the regional divide and incorporates an element of (EU-)Europe’s “outside”. In other words, the BSR is located at an overlap of two regional international societies, the European regional international society and a post-Soviet regional international society (Ganzle 2011, 12–16), with Russia being the sole interlocutor of the post-Soviet society in the BSR.1

Two events exerted an essential influence on the development of collaboration in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in the 21st century, namely: extension of the EU in 2004, due to which Baltic Sea became the inner sea of the EU (except for the Russian coast), and the elaboration and implementation in 2009 of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, which established the framework for the contemporary deepening of cooperation among the Baltic states inside the EU structures. The initially adopted model of cooperation concentrated on the key environmental issues, to then get extended towards the policy domain, including the transborder policies (institutional cooperation), as well as transport and economic connections (Palmowski, 2017). The article, while following the stream of the current studies of the BSR as an economic region, tries to fill the gap of complexity and dynamism of development processes, concerning the scale and intensity of mutual economic relations in relation to BSR. Thus, the article presents the basic aspects, associated with the introduction of the macroregional strategies in the EU and a short description of the economic integration process of the BSR. Analysis is presented of the most important regularities regarding trade exchange between the countries of the BSR, with consideration of the quantitative changes (volume, dynamics), and of the structural ones (specialization of trade in goods and services), as well as the trade linkages at the local level, as seen from the perspective of Polish exports (case study). International comparisons are based primarily on the economic data on foreign trade in goods and in services. The analysis concentrates on the assessment of the transformations in the years 2011 2019 (for trade in services: 2011 2018), that is – already after the establishment of the Strategy and the period of recession, resulting from the global crisis of 2008. In the course of the recent years the changes in the trade linkages considered brought a significant increase in the volume of trade, both concerning goods and services (46.3%), which confirms the initial proposition of the deepening integration within the BSR. Yet, this process takes place in a spatially uneven manner, and it is significantly stronger for the trade in goods than for the services. Internal trade inside the region accounts for as much as 23.7% of the total trade of the BSR countries (this share for the EU countries amounting to 60.0%). Nowadays, the internal trade with the BSR countries is of the highest importance for the small economies of the Baltic states, which is partly due to their intermediate position between Western Europe and Eastern Europe (including, especially, Russia). The analysis of the spatial development of trade with the Nordic countries at the local level in Poland demonstrates the persistence of the applicability and popularity of the gravity models in the study of regula ities, associated with the development of export relations; for the local economies the distance to the sales market and the local economic base are the essential factors, differentiating the magnitude and the significance of exports, in this case – to the Nordic countries. The macroregional Strategy might be treated as a new form of diversified integration within the EU, while the elaborated instruments of the policy and the strategy implementation process can be seen as the response to the need of the cohesion policy, dedicated to the particular areas of supranational dimensions (Gänzle & Kern, 2016). The BSR is strongly internally differentiated, this statement applying to economic, social and demographic aspects (Kubka, 2018). Moreover, it can be expected that the region will remain a heterogeneous area (Laaser & Schrader, 2002), also in terms of the regional trade patterns. Thereby, new questions arise, concerning the further process of economic integration and the specificity of cooperation in the framework of the BSR.

The variability of the atmospheric circulation described by the AO and NAO indices has a significant impact on the fluctuations of climate parameters in the Baltic Sea region. Many research show, that a decline in Arctic Sea ice extent increases the likelihood of negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, and in the future could lead to more frequent relatively cold weather events during winter months in Baltic Sea region. This research is important for understanding possible teleconnections between Arctic Sea ice and atmospheric circulation (AO and NAO). In addition, this research helps to better understand the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice extent and Baltic Sea region air temperature, as well as AO and NAO circulation impact on the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region. A statistically significant decrease in the Arctic Sea ice extent and a statistically significant increase in the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region have been determined. The obtained results show that the expansion of the Arctic Sea ice in January-February with a delay of one month determines the AO and NAO values (correlation coefficients vary from 0.32 to 0.55). This means that if Arctic Sea ice decreases during winter months, AO and NAO indices are more likely to become negative as well. However, as the obtained correlations are not very strong, the results are insufficient to confirm the hypothesis that the Arctic Sea ice extent impacts negative AO and NAO phases likelihood and requires further research. A strong correlation between the Baltic Sea region air temperature and the values of AO/NAO indices has been established. The obtained results show that the Baltic Sea region air temperature variability in December-March is greatly influenced by the AO and NAO phases. Keywords: teleconnections, Arctic Sea ice, AO, NAO, Baltic Sea region, air temperature.