Abstract
Although species with larger body size and slow pace of life have a higher risk of extinction at a global scale, it is unclear whether this global trend will be consistent across biogeographic realms. Here we measure the functional diversity of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates in the six terrestrial biogeographic realms and predict their future changes through scenarios mimicking a gradient of extinction risk of threatened species. We show vastly different effects of extinctions on functional diversity between taxonomic groups and realms, ranging from almost no decline to deep functional losses. The Indo-Malay and Palearctic realms are particularly inclined to experience a drastic loss of functional diversity reaching 29 and 31%, respectively. Birds, mammals, and reptiles regionally display a consistent functional diversity loss, while the projected losses of amphibians and freshwater fishes differ across realms. More efficient global conservation policies should consider marked regional losses of functional diversity across the world.
Highlights
Species with larger body size and slow pace of life have a higher risk of extinction at a global scale, it is unclear whether this global trend will be consistent across biogeographic realms
If CR species exhibit a unique set of functional traits, their extinction would cause a drastic loss of functional diversity[11,17]
We estimated the functional diversity of each realm using a probabilistic approach, providing more realistic functional spaces than other methods, such as convex-hulls[18,19]
Summary
Species with larger body size and slow pace of life have a higher risk of extinction at a global scale, it is unclear whether this global trend will be consistent across biogeographic realms. Functional traits can be summarized in a functional space with a few dimensions in which species are clumped around some prevalent strategies[8,11] Those global studies considered all the species together, whereas regions of the globe (e.g. biogeographic realms) host distinct types of ecosystems and faunas[12,13], which possibly cover different portions of the functional space. As the extinction of threatened species will neither occur simultaneously across the world or at the same pace, identifying which regions are more inclined to suffer larger losses of taxonomic and/or functional diversity might help to effectively target conservation goals. If the most threatened species do not host a unique set of functional traits, their extinction will not drastically alter the functional diversity of species. The conservation policies aimed at conserving functional diversity should be oriented toward long-term goals, on a broader range of threatened species
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