Abstract
Abstract Between 2010 and 2019, the global number of forcibly displaced individuals doubled, prompting countries to sign migration deals. Under these agreements, transit or origin countries halt migrants in exchange for support. The 2017 Italy–Libya deal outsourced search and rescue operations in the Central Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard (LCG), aiming to stop migrants from reaching Italy. Using a spatial difference-in-differences design, we find an increase in the probability of observing a deadly incident in areas patrolled by the LCG post-deal. Descriptive evidence suggests a shift in routes, diverting a significant portion of migration to the Western Mediterranean Route.
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