Exploring the use of the South African nest record scheme to detect changes in phenology: a case study using four well represented species
Phenological changes are one of the most well recognised responses of organisms to climate change. The ability to detect phenological change often relies on long‐term datasets, which are scarce in the Southern Hemisphere. As the adaptive capacity of species is highly variable, it is important to better understand how species in the Southern Hemisphere may respond to climate change through shifts in their annual cycles. Citizen science projects, like bird nest record schemes, offer valuable long‐term data, although data heterogeneity can pose challenges, affecting their use in research. To investigate the suitability of the South African nest record scheme (SANRS) for estimating phenological shifts, we conducted a preliminary exploration of shifts in lay dates in four well‐represented species. Firstly, we explore the composition of nest cards for each species, specifically the proportions of single‐ and multi‐visit cards. Secondly, we explore the accuracy of single‐visit cards for estimating lay dates compared to more accurate multi‐visit cards. Lastly, we compared analytical approaches to test for possible shifts in lay dates. We found little differences for lay date estimates between single and multi‐visit cards and our different models showed similar patterns of lay date shifts for all species. Three of our four species (African paradise flycatcher Terpsiphone viridis , cape turtle dove Streptopelia capicola , cape wagtail Motacilla capensis and laughing dove Spilopelia senegalensis ) showed a shift toward later laying over the period 1950–1999. Although only based on a limited number of species, this consistent pattern towards later lay dates contrasts with the general trends found in the Northern Hemisphere for shifts toward earlier laying. The mechanisms driving these shifts is currently unclear, but in contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, in this region rainfall rather than temperature may have a stronger influence on avian breeding phenology. Our results highlight the potential of the South African Nest Record Scheme to detect shifts in laying dates, paving the way for more extensive studies of phenological changes, and the mechanisms involved, in the under‐researched region.
- Research Article
10
- 10.1360/tb-2019-0022
- Nov 19, 2019
- Chinese Science Bulletin
The increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is one of the main causes of global warming. Remote sensing technology has become an important means of monitoring the distribution of carbon dioxide gas. By remotely monitoring the temporal and spatial distributions of atmospheric carbon dioxide, people can further deepen their understanding of the global carbon process. The GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite) CO2 L4B concentration data from 2010 to 2015 were validated using local station atmospheric data. The spatial and temporal distributions of the carbon dioxide concentration and its variation characteristics were analyzed. Based on the total primary productivity data and human emissions of carbon dioxide data, the influencing factors of spatial variations in carbon dioxide were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The correlation coefficient between GOSATL4B data and ground-measured data is above 0.95, which indicates that the remotely acquired data have high precision and stability. (2) The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon dioxide at different atmospheric pressure heights are quite different. The variation in the long-term series mean of carbon dioxide concentration levels at 17 vertical heights was studied. The fluctuations in concentration changes at different height levels vary, and the closer to the surface, the greater the fluctuation is. The near-surface carbon dioxide concentration (975 hPa) has the largest fluctuation. When the atmospheric pressure is low (for example, 150 or 100 hPa), the high carbon dioxide concentration region is banded and concentrated near the equator. The trends in carbon dioxide concentration over land and sea surfaces are similar, and the common pattern is that the concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing. (3) The near-surface carbon dioxide concentration (975 hPa) has clearly different spatial characteristics. There are four high-value centers across the globe: East Asia, western Europe, the US East Coast, and Central Africa. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Northern Hemisphere near the ground is higher than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The fluctuation in the Southern Hemisphere is relatively small, and the trend is opposite that in the Northern Hemisphere. (4) The concentration of carbon dioxide showed a significant growth trend during the study period. By studying the change characteristics of the monthly global average at the 975 hPa level (approximately 300 m above sea level) from January 2010 to October 2015, it can be seen that the global CO2 concentration has been above 400 ppm for most of the year, and it is increasing each year. (5) Compared with the Southern Hemisphere, the cyclical changes in carbon dioxide concentration in the Northern Hemisphere are obvious and large, while the trend in the Southern Hemisphere is relatively stable, and the change is small. There are opposite trends in the cyclical changes in the carbon dioxide concentration in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. When the carbon concentration in the Northern Hemisphere resides over the annual high-value area, the Southern Hemisphere has a low-value area of carbon dioxide concentration every year. In addition, the change in carbon dioxide concentration during the year is obvious with seasonal changes. This should be related to changes in vegetation phenology and different seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. (6) Four countries in East Asia (Korea, Mongolia, Japan and China) from 2010 to 2014 were selected to analyze the relationship between GPP (gross primary production) and near-surface carbon dioxide concentration. These two factors have a significant inverse correlation. When carbon dioxide is at a minimum, the GPP is at its peak, and when carbon dioxide reaches its peak, the GPP reaches a minimum. The above relationship fully indicates that terrestrial ecosystems play an important role as carbon sink contributors in the carbon cycle. (7) The relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide data from human activities from the Global Atmospheric Research Emissions Database was analyzed. The former is significantly and positively correlated with carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activities, indicating that human activities are an important factor in the increase in carbon dioxide.
- Research Article
4
- 10.1080/14772000.2017.1291542
- Mar 1, 2017
- Systematics and Biodiversity
The leafy liverwort genus Herbertus exhibits considerably variable morphology and widely disjunct distributions in both hemispheres. Here, the biogeographic history of the genus and its phylogenetic relationships with the focus on the taxonomically difficult, northern hemispheric disjunct species, were investigated. We conducted a time-calibrated, molecular-based phylogenetic analysis using psbA, trnL-F, and ITS1-2 loci and different approaches for ancestral range inference of the genus. Herbertus is inferred to have originated in the Cenozoic era about 51 million years ago, in an ancestral area including southern South America, the Neotropics, Oceania, and South-east Asia. The current distribution of the genus is supported to have resulted from long-term in situ persistence, short and long distance dispersals, extinctions and recolonizations. Postglacial range shifts between the southern and northern hemisphere in the genus show distinct patterns. In the southern hemisphere, Herbertus is characterized by in situ persistence, not showing further dispersal until the uplift of the Andean Cordillera. Species of the northern hemisphere showed wide range expansions and repeated recolonizations, including north- and southward dispersals, recolonizations and extinctions. Our results support that the ancestor of South-east Asiatic Herbertus had a Gondwanan origin and arrived in Asia via Indian Plate migration. The uplift of high mountains must have had a strong influence in the diversification and dispersal of the genus. Our results further suggest that climate changes must have had a profound effect on the evolution and biogeography of the species of Herbertus in the northern hemisphere, and might also have influenced the reproductive strategies of the genus. Few genetic differentiations amongst currently recognized species H. aduncus, H. dicranus, H. hutchinsiae, H. stramineus, H. delavayi, and H. kurzii, and amongst H. sendtneri, H. armitanus, and H. circinatus were shown, suggesting that the morphological characters that are currently used for delimiting species should be re-evaluated.
- Research Article
3
- 10.3389/fspas.2022.879314
- May 31, 2022
- Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
The present article aims at a consistent understanding of observation, theoretical model, and simulation with the geomagnetic sudden commencement (SC) observed in the morning and afternoon at high and middle latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres and at the noontime equator on 12 May 2021. The SC in Bx- and By-components of the geomagnetic field, SCx,y, was composed of the positive/negative preliminary (PI) and main impulses (MI) as SCx (+ -) and SCy (- +) in the morning and SCx (- +) and SCy (+ -) in the afternoon at middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere. SCx in the southern hemisphere is in the same polarity as those in the northern hemisphere, except for SCx (+ +) in the morning. SCy in the southern hemisphere has reverse polarity to those in the northern hemisphere. The PIx in the northern hemisphere matches the well-established two-cell Hall current vortices with anti-clockwise and clockwise directions in the morning and afternoon, respectively, and the MIx matches reverse Hall current vortices. The PIx and MIx in the southern hemisphere meet the Hall currents that are mirror images of those in the northern hemisphere with respect to the equator except for the positive MI in the morning. The PIy in the northern hemisphere is shown to meet the northward and southward Pedersen currents in the morning and afternoon, respectively, and the MIy meets reverse Pedersen currents. The PIy and MIy in the southern hemisphere are found to meet the Pedersen currents that are mirror images of those in the northern hemisphere. At the equator, typical SCx (- +) is observed, meeting the Cowling currents that should be supplied by the Pedersen currents responsible for the observed midlatitude SCy in the northern and southern hemispheres. The electric fields of the PI and MI observed by the HF Doppler sounders at the middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere are westward and eastward, respectively, in both the morning and afternoon, meeting the conventional dusk-to-dawn PI and dawn-to-dusk MI electric fields. The onset of the PI is found to be simultaneous with the resolution of a few seconds from high latitude to the equator in both the northern and southern hemispheres, indicating instantaneous achievement of the Pedersen–Cowling currents from high latitude to the equator. The instantaneous achievement of the energy-consuming Pedersen–Cowling currents is explained by the TM0/TEM mode wave in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide/transmission line rather than the compressional waves in the magnetosphere and F-region ionosphere. REPPU (REProduce Plasma Universe) global simulation model equipped with a potential solver at the inner boundary of the model magnetosphere reproduces the PI and MI electric fields at middle latitudes and SCx (- +) at the dayside equator. The simulation results are found to be consistent with most features of observations, such as the time scale of PI and MI, direction of the midlatitude electric field and generation of the Cowling currents. The simulation proves that the electric fields and FACs are generated in the outer magnetosphere, transmitted to the polar ionosphere and then to the equator in the Pedersen–Cowling current circuit.
- Research Article
15
- 10.1007/s12237-014-9790-9
- Mar 19, 2014
- Estuaries and Coasts
The asymmetries between hemispheres in stratospheric ozone concentration and atmospheric aerosols, leading to differences in incident ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation, were examined in order to resolve the differential forcing of adaptation and selection of marine organisms under elevated UV-B radiation. This analysis was based on a meta-analysis including 2,060 experimental assessments of responses of marine organisms from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to UV-B. Stratospheric ozone concentration in spring and summer decreased by 11.0 % in the Southern and 2.7 % in the Northern between 1970 and 2012, indicating higher UV-B incidence on the Southern Hemisphere. The ratio of studies on UV-B radiation impacts performed in the Southern against the Northern Hemisphere was 0.34 indicating higher research effort in the Northern Hemisphere. Responses of marine biota to UV-B indicated significantly more resistance of marine organisms tested from the Southern Hemisphere (P < 0.01) to UV-B radiation. Marine plants (angiosperm, macroalgae and microalgae) showed no significant differences in UV-B sensitivity between hemispheres, but the family Ulvaceae, showed significantly more resistance to UV-B for organisms tested from the Southern Hemisphere (P < 0.005). Echinodermata tested from the Southern Hemisphere were more resistant to UV-B (P < 0.005), as well as early stages of marine organisms (P < 0.001). Responses at the molecular and cellular level and demographic levels showed lower UV-B effects in the organisms tested from the Southern Hemisphere. The results obtained suggest that marine organisms from the Southern Hemisphere tend to be more resistant to UV-B radiation than those in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Research Article
15
- 10.1007/s12036-007-0018-2
- Dec 1, 2007
- Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy
Distribution of latitudes and speeds of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the northern and southern hemispheres in cycle 23, from September 1996 to December 2006, have been analyzed. By calculating the actual probability of the hemispheric distribution of the activity of the CME, we find that a southern dominance of the activity of the CME is shown to occur in cycle 23 from September 1996 to December 2006. The CME activity occurs at all latitudes and is most common at low latitudes. This should furnish evidence to support that CMEs are associated with source magnetic structures on a large spatial scale, even with transequatorial source magnetic structures on a large spatial scale. The latitudinal distribution of CMEs in the northern and southern hemispheres are no different from a statistical point of view. The speed distribution in the northern and southern hemispheres are nearly identical and to a good approximation they can be fitted with a single lognormal distribution. This finding implies that, statistically, there is no physical distinction between the CME events in the southern and northern hemispheres and the same mechanism of a nonlinear nature acting in both the CME events in the northern and southern hemispheres. Our conclusions seem to suggest that the northernsouthern asymmetry of the CME events is related to the northern-southern asymmetry in solar dynamo theory.
- Research Article
58
- 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-306276
- Feb 11, 2015
- Heart
### Learning objectives Acute coronary syndromes Decreased exercise tolerance and worsening of angina symptoms during the winter months is a well-documented phenomenon among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD).1 There...
- Research Article
1
- 10.1111/j.1751-8369.1994.tb00433.x
- Jun 1, 1994
- Polar Research
Peculiarities in the intra-annual variations of 03, N20 and CH4 in the middle and upper stratosphere are analysed by different methods for the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and the Southern hemispheres. In the middle stratosphere the phase of the O, annual harmonic shifts in the Northern Hemisphere from polar to lower latitudes, while in the Southern Hemisphere the downward shift is exhibited. The phase of the NiO annual harmonic shifts to the poles both in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, but in the Northern Hemisphere it is almost vertical with the horizontal spreading, while in the Southern Hemisphere the phase propagation has a remarkable downward component. The most similar shifts of the phase of the annual harmonic in the middle stratosphere of both hemispheres are exhibited for the CII” content in the middle and high latitudes. Remarkable differences are noted between the intervals with the increase of mixing ratios in the annual cycle at different latitudinal belts. In particular, these intervals are large in subtropical stratosphere, with a shorter and steeper decrease of the mixing ratios. The general decrease of these intervals is exhibited from middle to polar latitudes. The striking difference in temporal variations of the species exists between the northern polar and middle latitudes, where the month-to-month changes of the species are often opposite each to other. These peculiarities and interhemispheric differences are associated with the different stratospheric dynamics of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, particularly with different regimes of planetary wave activity in the northern and southern extratropical latitudes.
- Research Article
3
- 10.1002/fee.2641
- Jun 1, 2023
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Generating ecological insights from historical data
- Research Article
10
- 10.1111/gcb.14423
- Sep 23, 2018
- Global Change Biology
The relationship between the timing of recurrent biological events and seasonal climatic patterns (i.e., phenology) is a crucial ecological process. Changes in phenology are increasingly linked to global climate change. However, current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is subjected to substantial regional and seasonal biases. Most available evidence on climate-driven phenological changes comes from Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems and typically involves increases in spring and summer temperatures, which translate into earlier onsets of spring population developments. In the Argentine Pampa region, warming has occurred at a much slower pace than in the NH, and trends are mostly restricted to increases in the minimum temperatures. We used zooplankton abundance data from Lake Chascomús (recorded every two weeks from 2005 to 2015) to evaluate potential changes in phenology. We adopted a sequential screening approach to identify taxa displaying phenological trends and evaluated whether such trends could be associated to observe long-term changes in water temperature. Two zooplankton species displayed significant later shifts in phenology metrics (end date of Brachionus havanaensis seasonal distribution: 31day/decade, onset and end dates of Keratella americana seasonal distribution: 59day/decade and 82day/decade, respectively). The timing of the observed shift in B.havanaensis phenology was coincident with a warming trend in the May lake water temperature (4.7°C per decade). Analysis of abundance versus temperature patterns from six additional shallow Pampean lakes, and evaluation of previous experimental results, provided further evidence that the lake water warming trend in May was responsible for the delayed decline of B. havanaensis populations in autumn. This study is the first report of freshwater zooplankton phenology changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).
- Research Article
4
- 10.1590/0004-282x20130114
- Sep 1, 2013
- Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria
Multiple sclerosis in the Southern and Northern hemispheres: the month of birth at different latitudes has the same influence on the prevalence and progression of the disease in the Northern and Southern hemispheres?
- Research Article
15
- 10.1109/embc.2016.7591232
- Aug 1, 2016
- Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. Annual International Conference
The digital revolution of information and technology in late 20th century has led to emergence of devices that help people monitor their weight in a long-term manner. Investigation of population-level variations of body mass using smart connected weight scales enabled the health coaches acquire deeper insights about the models of people's behavior as a function of time. Typically, body mass varies when the seasons change. That is, during the warmer seasons people's body mass tend to decrease while in colder seasons it usually moves up. In this paper we study the seasonal variations of body mass in seven countries by utilization of linear regression. Deviation of monthly weight values from the starting point of astronomical years (beginning of spring) were modeled by fitting orthogonal polynomials in each country. The distinction of weight variations in southern and northern hemispheres were then investigated. The studied population involves 6429 anonymous weight scale users from:(1) Australia, (2) Brazil, (3) France, (4) Germany, (5) Great Britain, (6) Japan, and (7) United States of America. The results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between the models of weight variation in southern and northern hemispheres. In both northern and southern hemispheres the lowest weight values were observed in the summer. However, the highest weight values were noticed in the winter and in the spring for northern and southern hemispheres, respectively.
- Abstract
- 10.1093/annonc/mdz422.022
- Nov 1, 2019
- Annals of Oncology
144P - Severe hypovitaminosis D in metastatic gastric cancer patients from the Northern and Southern hemispheres: Data from the EXPAND phase III trial
- Research Article
2
- 10.1134/s0001433808030067
- Jun 1, 2008
- Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Distinctions between the longitudinal structures of circulation in the stratosphere and mesosphere/lower thermosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres are investigated on the basis of the temperature and geopotential distributions obtained with a SABER instrument (TIMED satellite) in the months of February and August in 2002–2005. The positions of the winter cyclone and polar vortex at stratospheric and mesospheric heights in 2002–2005 are compared to the climatic data over 1978–1998. At stratospheric heights, the mean position of the polar vortex’s center over several years changed insignificantly during the specified years (several degrees in latitude and longitude) in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres. At mesosphere/lower thermosphere heights, the polar vortex occupies the same position in the Southern Hemisphere each year during 2002–2005, and this position agrees with the estimates for 1996–1997. Parameters of stationary planetary waves with the zonal wave number 1 (SPW1) in the fields of temperature, geopotential, and wind are calculated from data on the temperature and geopotential. The height profiles of SPW1 amplitudes and phases calculated from the SABER instrument data for August in the Southern Hemisphere are in good agreement with the profiles of amplitudes and phases obtained from the direct wind measurements with HRDI and WINDII instruments. A strong interannual variability of SPW1 parameters is observed in the Northern Hemisphere. The calculation of the Eliassen-Palm flux and its divergence has shown that SPW1 penetrates into the mesosphere mainly from the stratosphere and slows down the zonal mean flux. However, in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a regular additional SPW1 source with the center at a height of about 65 km and a latitude of 55°S. Such a SPW1 source is, on average, absent in the Northern Hemisphere during 2002–2005; however, in some years (for example, in February 2004), its existence is possible.
- Research Article
11
- 10.1007/s11434-008-0316-3
- Aug 27, 2008
- Science Bulletin
The seasonal cycle of interhemispheric oscillations in mass field of the global atmosphere
- Research Article
7
- 10.1016/j.jastp.2006.04.003
- Jun 13, 2006
- Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Ozone laminae: Comparison of the Southern and Northern Hemisphere, and tentative explanation of trends
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