Abstract

ABSTRACT Recently, many prominent public figures have been accused of sexual misconduct, with American politicians being no exception. In light of the prominence and deeply personal nature of sexual misconduct allegations, we explore the effects of these allegations on political careers. Pairing original, externally validated data with rich existing data, we explore the effects of allegations of sexual misconduct on political careers for politicians at a variety of levels of politics, across political parties and branches of government, and over a long period of time. Through a variety of statistical tests and simulations, we demonstrate that as time post-allegations increases, the likelihood of politicians losing their seats increases exponentially, regardless of surrounding context. This ultimately suggests that the effects of sexual misconduct allegations on political careers are pronounced and often terminal.

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