Abstract
Since the start of the new Korean government in 2017, the Korean nuclear energy system has undergone a major change. This change in national energy policy can be forecasted by analyzing social big data. This study verifies whether future forecasting methodologies using weak signals can be applied to Korean nuclear energy through text mining the data of web news between 2005 and 2018, comparing and applying the methodology to notable events (i.e., the UAE nuclear power plant (NPP) contract and nuclear phase-out). In addition, we predict what changes will be made in the Korean nuclear energy system post-2019. Keywords extracted through text mining were quantitatively classified into a weak signal or a strong signal using a Keyword Emergence Map (KEM) and a Keyword Issue Map (KIM). The extracted keywords predicted the contract of the UAE NPPs in 2009 and nuclear phase-out in 2017. Furthermore, keywords revealing future signals beyond 2019 were found to be ‘nuclear phase-out’ and ‘wind energy’. The weak-signal methodology can be applied as a tool to predict future energy trends during the current circumstance of the rapidly changing world energy market.
Highlights
Mankind has devoted much attention to predicting the future
The proposed methodology was verified to confirm whether the future-signal prediction methodology is valid for the nuclear power sector (1) from 2005 to the first half of 2010 and (2) from 2011 to the first half of 2017
As a result of the verification process, the future-signal prediction methodology using social data accurately predicted the export of the UAE nuclear power plant (NPP)—which became big news in the first half of 2010—and the declaration of nuclear phase-out in the first half of 2017
Summary
Predicting the future was solely the responsibility of priests, astrologers, and shamans. Their future forecasts often deviated and lacked concrete rationale. With the advent of science and technology, future predictions became more sophisticated and fact-based. Future predictions in the modern definition began to take shape between 1945 and 1960, during which time the development of scientific methodologies through rationalization was attempted [2]. Due to the rapidly changing social environment and competitive business environment, the importance and use of future forecasts based on a Management Information System (MIS) is increasing [6]. As well as major industrialized nations, many large corporations are focusing on forecasting to identify trends and to select key technologies for the future
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