Exploration of the chemical space and its three historical regimes

Abstract

Chemical research unveils the structure of chemical space, spanned by all chemical species, as documented in more than 200 y of scientific literature, now available in electronic databases. Very little is known, however, about the large-scale patterns of this exploration. Here we show, by analyzing millions of reactions stored in the Reaxys database, that chemists have reported new compounds in an exponential fashion from 1800 to 2015 with a stable 4.4% annual growth rate, in the long run neither affected by World Wars nor affected by the introduction of new theories. Contrary to general belief, synthesis has been the means to provide new compounds since the early 19th century, well before Wöhler's synthesis of urea. The exploration of chemical space has followed three statistically distinguishable regimes. The first one included uncertain year-to-year output of organic and inorganic compounds and ended about 1860, when structural theory gave way to a century of more regular and guided production, the organic regime. The current organometallic regime is the most regular one. Analyzing the details of the synthesis process, we found that chemists have had preferences in the selection of substrates and we identified the workings of such a selection. Regarding reaction products, the discovery of new compounds has been dominated by very few elemental compositions. We anticipate that the present work serves as a starting point for more sophisticated and detailed studies of the history of chemistry.