Explanation of climate and human impacts on sediment discharge change in Darwinian hydrology: Derivation of a differential equation

Abstract

The assessment for impacts of climate variability and human activities on suspended sediment yield (SSY) change has long been a question of great interest. However, the sediment generation processes are sophisticated with high nonlinearity and great uncertainty, which give rise to extreme complexity for SSY change assessment in Newtonian approach. Consequently, few approaches can be simply but widely applied to decompose impacts of climatic variability and human activities on SSY change. Thus, it is an urgent need to develop advanced methods that are simple and robust. Since that the Newtonian approach is hardly achievable due to limitation of either observations or knowledge of mechanisms, there have been repeated calls to capture the hydrologic system in Darwinian approach for hydrological change prediction or explanation. As streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, SSY change are thus documented in changes of sediment concentrated flow and suspended sediment concentration – water discharge (C-Q) relationships. By deduced corollaries, a differential equation of sediment discharge change was derived to explicitly decompose impacts of climate variability and human activities in Darwinian hydrology. Besides, a new form of sediment rating curves was proposed and curved as C-Q relationships and probability distribution of sediment concentrated flow. River sediment flux can be revealed by this representation, which simply elucidates mechanism of SSY generation covering a range of time scales from finer than rainfall-event to long term. By the new sediment rating curves, the differential equation was partly solved using a segmentation algorithm proposed and validated in this paper, and then was submitted to water balance framework expressed by Budyko-type equation. Thus, for catchment management, hydrologists can obtain explicit explanation of how climate variation and human activities propagate through landscape and result in sediment discharge change. The differential equation is simple and robust for widely application in sediment discharge change assessment, as only discrete data of precipitation, potential evaporation and C-Q observed at gauging stations are required.