Explaining recent fertility trends in Iran: the predominance of marriage and the economy

Fertility trends in Botswana have been the subject of much debate in recent years as a number of surveys in the mid to late 1980s suggested that a fertility decline was under way. This paper first reviews the demographic evidence for a fertility decline and argues that the magnitude of the decline was rather less than some commentators had suggested. The paper then places the trends in fertility in the social and economic context of Botswana in the 1980s. It is argued that there could have been a short‐term decline in childbearing as a result of economic crises brought on by a major drought and helped by the government of Botswana's strategies to alleviate the effects of the drought on its people.

There has been considerable speculation about the effects of Chinas economic reforms on recent trends in fertility. This article uses data from a 1987 survey the 1st detailed national-level data since the 1982 census and 1/1000 survey to analyze recent fertility change. The total fertility rate shows no overall trend since the late 1970s fluctuating around 2.4 children per woman. Sharp fluctuations in age distribution and marriage patterns render the crude birth rate an unreliable indicator. Parity progression ratios suggest that the overall trend has been toward slightly increasing numbers of 1-child families. Implications for policy and programs are discussed as are possible reasons for the halt of fertility decline at current levels. (authors)

South Korea and other developed regions in East Asia have become forerunners of prolonged lowest-low fertility. South Korea's total fertility rate has been below 1.3 for two decades, the longest duration among OECD countries. Using vital statistics and census data, I study recent trends in the country's cohort fertility covering women born before the 1960s to those born in the 1980s. Analyzing outcomes at both the intensive margin of fertility (i.e., timing and number of children) and the extensive margin of family formation (i.e., marriage and childlessness), I document three novel patterns. First, the driver of low fertility has evolved across birth cohorts, from married women having later and fewer childbirths, to fewer women getting married, and finally to fewer women having children even if married. Second, a decomposition analysis of marriage and fertility changes indicates that the marriage and fertility decline was driven by changes within educational groups rather than by changes in women's educational composition. Third, the relationship between women's educational attainment and marriage or fertility was negative for the 1960s cohort, but an inverted U-shaped education gradient emerged beginning with the 1970s cohort.

"Australia's fertility has declined significantly since the 1950s, and has remained below the long-term replacement level since 1976. The current trend appears to be towards a further decline. This paper describes the patterns of the fertility decline in terms of age and parity of the mother, and the effect on recent fertility decline of the postponement of marriage and family formation. The implications of the continued decline in fertility on completed family size are studied by reference to fertility patterns of marriage cohorts."

Levels and Recent Trends in Fertility and Mortality in Colombia.

The State Family Planning Commission of China has conducted two large-scale fertility surveys, in 1982 and 1988, covering sample households containing 1 million and 2 million persons, respectively. These surveys obtained lifetime histories, including age at first marriage and at each birth for female members of the households from ages 15 to 67 in the first survey and from 15 to 57 in the second. The data provide detailed information on the extraordinary decline in the rate of childbearing in China (by 60% from 1970 to 1980). Because rising age at marriage played a significant role in this decline, the effect of changes in the pattern of entry into marriage on childbearing since 1980 was examined. There was a sharp increase in overall fertility (the total fertility rate) from 1980 to 1982; after falling to slightly below the 1980 level in 1985, the rate rose in 1985 and 1986 to well above that of 1980. A major factor in this arrested and partially reversed decline was a boom in marriage that followed a relaxation in 1980 of locally administered restrictions on marriage before the officially designated desirable age. In fact, the total fertility rate of married women (summed over duration of marriage rather than age) averaged much lower in the mid-1980s than in 1980. The summary rate of bearing second children increased markedly in the 1980s when calculated by age of women, but declined when calculated by duration of marriage, given the inflated number of recently married women.

Canada and the United States have enjoyed vigorous population growth since the early 1980s. Although mortality is slightly higher in the United States than in Canada, this is largely offset by much higher fertility, with a total fertility rate at replacement level, compared with just 1.5 children per woman in Canada. The United States is also the world's largest immigrant receiving country, although its immigration rate is only half that of Canada, where today one person in five is foreign-born, versus one in eight in the United States. Based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration, the populations of these two North American countries will continue to grow over the next five decades, but at a progressively slower pace. The most acute demographic issue today is not, as in Europe, that of imminent population decline, but rather of the geographic and social inequalities which have increased steadily since the early 1980s and which are reflected in major fertility and health differentials between regions and social groups.

<i>Recent Trends in Fertility in Industrialized Countries.</i>United Nations

Recent Trends in Fertility in Industrialised Countries. (Population Studies No. 27. United Nations, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. New York. 1958. Pp. 182. Price 14s.)

The State Family Planning Commission of China has conducted two large-scale fertility surveys, in 1982 and 1988, covering sample households containing 1 million and 2 million persons, respectively. These surveys obtained lifetime histories, including age at first marriage and at each birth for female members of the households from ages 15 to 67 in the first survey and from 15 to 57 in the second. The data provide detailed information on the extraordinary decline in the rate of childbearing in China (by 60% from 1970 to 1980). Because rising age at marriage played a significant role in this decline, the effect of changes in the pattern of entry into marriage on childbearing since 1980 was examined. There was a sharp increase in overall fertility (the total fertility rate) from 1980 to 1982; after falling to slightly below the 1980 level in 1985, the rate rose in 1985 and 1986 to well above that of 1980. A major factor in this arrested and partially reversed decline was a boom in marriage that followed a relaxation in 1980 of locally administered restrictions on marriage before the officially designated desirable age. In fact, the total fertility rate of married women (summed over duration of marriage rather than age) averaged much lower in the mid-1980s than in 1980. The summary rate of bearing second children increased markedly in the 1980s when calculated by age of women, but declined when calculated by duration of marriage, given the inflated number of recently married women.

The US National Academy of Sciences Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa met for the first time in February 1990 in Washington DC to launch a major initiative aimed at deepening understanding of demographic change in the subcontinent. The initiative produced a total seven volumes including a set of reports providing an in-depth analysis of various aspects of African socioeconomic and demographic trends and two country-specific reports. These showed that outside of South Africa where the transition was well established fertility remained very high (generally above 6 children per woman) in much of the continent but that unquestionable signs of country-level decline were visible in a few countries such as Kenya and Zimbabwe. My review of the papers included in the main report Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (Foote Hill and Martin 1993) argued that high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa was not a peculiar expression of African cultures but a rational response to the continent’s specific circumstances and that changes in those circumstances could usher in a new era (Mbacke 1994). Twenty-five years later in July 2015 and at the same location the Workshop on Recent Trends in Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa was held to take stock of the same topic at a time when the continent’s leaders have started paying serious attention to fertility as a key factor in economic development. Armed with richer and better-quality data than was available in the early 1990s when Africa’s fertility transition was just starting the papers presented at the workshop—many of which appear in revised form in this volume—provide a rich picture of the changes that occurred over the quarter-century and of the factors behind them. The papers also discuss the policy implications and the potential for harnessing a demographic dividend in support of the continent’s development. This commentary will focus on the “African exceptionalism” that is a thread throughout a number of the chapters in this volume. (excerpt)

Objectives To analyse changes in contraceptive practice among Czech women, during the last two decades, and to evaluate the associated demographic impacts.Methods Recent trends in fertility and abortion are presented and compared with earlier survey data on contraceptive use. Data from four Czech surveys carried out as part of international projects in 1993, 1997, 2005, and 2008 were used to document changes in contraceptive practice among Czech women.Results Greater availability and greater acceptance of new birth control methods have resulted in increased contraceptive use and in the replacement of traditional methods with more effective alternatives. While only 42% of women in union (married and cohabiting) used condoms, the pill or an intrauterine contraceptive in 1993, 75% of all women with a partner currently use effective contraceptives. The fertility transition towards delayed childbearing has not resulted in additional requirements in terms of family planning as no increase in the abortion rate among young women is observed.Conclusion The shaping of a new reproduction pattern in the Czech Republic has been accompanied by significant improvements in contraceptive practice. Despite the fact that the Czech population cannot be considered to perform outstandingly in terms of use of contraception, any remaining unmet need for modern contraception is marginal.

The rate of increase of population in less developed countries accelerated rapidly from 1850 to 1960 because of a rapid decline in mortality while fertility remained high. In the 1960's, the birth rate as a whole began to decline more rapidly than the death rate--very rapidly in some populations, most notably that of China, more gradually in others, and not at all in some of the poorest populations. The momentum of growth implies continued increase in populations for several decades even in countries where fertility has fallen the most, and very large additional increases where there has been no decline in the rate of childbearing.

Levels and Recent Trends in Fertility and Mortality in Colombia

1. Introduction 2. Sources of Population Debate 3. Methods of Demographic Analysis 4. Britain's Population History 5. Recent Trends in Fertility and Mortality 6. Migration and the Geography of Population 7. Population Issues in the 1990s Bibliography Statistical Tables