Experiments in Police Discretion: Scientific Boon or Dangerous Knowledge?

Abstract

Scientific experimentation holds the potential for revolutionizing police discretion.2 It has already begun to erode the ignorance police have of the consequences of their actions after they leave an encounter. Science may soon be able to guide the discretionary allocation of scarce criminal justice resources to those offenders who are most deterrable, as well as to those who commit the most offenses. Science may also be able to tell police when not to act, if their actions would produce more harmful consequences than benefits. Before rushing headlong into a brave new world of scientifically based police discretion, one must carefully consider its implications. Detailed of the consequences of police discretion in a wide range of situations could produce dangerous forms of inequity and discrimination. Moreover, that knowledge may be faulty in its application to particular cases. Yet, attempts to refine the to produce more accurate predictions in particular cases may produce even greater dangers of discrimination. This article describes the problem that experiments in police discretion may solve, the experiments themselves, and the problems their findings may create. It articulates three familiar value models of police work that can be used to examine the uses or abuses of about the consequences of police discretion. Finally, it uses those models to examine the implications of (1) not knowing the consequences of police decisions, (2) knowing the average