Exogenous Shocks and Macroeconomic Policy Analysis using Applied Macro-Econometric Models in Africa

Abstract

In this study we have developed a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy. This is aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools which are increasingly demanded in Africa. We have concretized it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has 107 equations of which 72 are endogenous. In addition, a supplementary ARIMA based model with 33 equations for exogenous variable is built to make the model useful for forecasting. The fiscal, balance of payment and money supply block of the model is fairly disaggregated to offer an adequate picture of the macro economy. An econometric estimation of the core behavioral equations of the model using equilibrium [error]-correction approach is made with the database that stretches from 1960 to 2009. The model is similar to successful macro models in the region such as that of the KIPPRA-Treasury model of Kenya. It can also easily be further extended to the support budgeting, forecasting and macroeconomic policy analysis work at the relevant ministries in Africa such as the Ministry of Finance in Rwanda. We have managed to successfully solve the model from 1999 to 2009 and forecast major macro outcomes from 2010 to 2014. We have also used it to conduct a policy simulation exercise which is very important for policy makers such as those in Rwanda. We hope this model offers a theoretical and empirical framework for building macro model across Africa which is increasingly being demanded in many countries.