Exchange Entitlement Mapping

An entitlement approach called “exchange entitlement mapping,” or E-mapping, is developed throughout this chapter and chapter 4 to understand how economic events, such as changes in exchange rate, interest rate, or inflation, affect individual well-being. With his work on poverty and famines, Sen provides a basis for the measurement of exchange entitlement sets faced by an individual in the context of market interactions. E-mapping, in the sense developed by Sen (1981), represents the set of consumption bundles that the individual faces, any of which can be chosen, given his or her endowments. Sen used E-mapping to explain famines, which are due to entitlement failures to food supply, instead of the traditional explanation of a shortage in food supply alone. However, the theoretical framework presented here proposes a dynamic approach to E-mapping augmented with capabilities, from achieved functionings at time t0 to potential functionings at time t according to the individual’s social and economic entitlements. This framework helps to demonstrate that the functionings of individuals become the social entitlements of others, thus leading to the interdependence of functionings between individuals.

Purpose: Aggregate private investment is key in stimulating economic growth and development of a country such as Kenya. However, the sector seems to be influenced by changes in macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the study aimed at determining the effect of change in macroeconomic variables on aggregate private investment growth in Kenya. It focused on the effect of changes in interest, inflation and exchange rates on aggregate private investment growth in Kenya as the key objectives of the study. Methodology: The study adopted the quantitative causal research design. Secondary data obtained from the World Bank was used, with a time scope of between 1972 and 2023. Data was analyzed through exploratory and inferential analyses via R software. Cointegration analysis was carried out through the Johansen test and both the Maximum Eigenvalue and Trace tests indicated the absence of cointegration relationships since the test statistic values were less than the critical values at ∝ = 0.05. Thus, ARDL estimation technique was adopted. Findings: The study’s findings indicated that change in interest rate had a statistically significant negative effect on aggregate private investment growth in Kenya (P-value < 0.05). Furthermore, the study revealed that such effect wasn’t instant but was translated after three years. The study further found that change in inflation rate had a statistically significant positive effect on Kenya’s aggregate private investment growth (P-value < 0.05). Likewise, such effect was felt on aggregate private investment after eight years. Finally, the study showed that change in exchange rate did not have any significant effect on aggregate private investment growth in Kenya (P-value > 0.05). Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study recommends the need to manage the changes in macroeconomic variables including inflation and interest rates within their target range as prescribed by the “monetary policy” so as to ensure macroeconomic stability and boost aggregate private investment growth in Kenya.

Purpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables. Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy-making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study. Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest rates. Therefore, the changes of interest rates are the main determinants of the changes of exchange rates in this short period. The results of Impulse-Response Test show that an unexpected shock (an unexpected increase) in government bond interest rates affects the exchange rates and increases it significantly. More, an unexpected increase in the exchange rates causes the interest rates on government bond to increase. The results of the variance decomposition test show that 50% of the change in the variance of the exchange rates in the first period is explained by changes in bond interest while 30% of the change in the variance of bond interest rates is explained by the changes in exchange rates. The results of Johansen cointegration test support that there is a stable long-term relationship between dollar exchange rates and government bond interest rates. Conclusion-This study focuses on the relationship between government bond interest rates and the dollar exchange rates in Turkiye for the last 10 policy interest rates announcements by Cenral Bank of Turkiye. In summary, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Data for the days that the CBRT issued the last ten policy rates is gathered for this purpose. The association between two variables is measured using Vector Autoregression (VAR). According to overall results, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Keywords: Policy rate, exchange rate, interest rate, Turkiye, Granger Causality, VAR model JEL Codes: E40, E50, C10, C58

PurposeThis study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect.FindingsAccording to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate.Research limitations/implicationsThe first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation.Originality/valueHousing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.

Abstract. This study is focused on looking at conditions of macroeconomic changes that have an impact on the activity of the Islamic capital market, particularly on the return of Islamic stocks listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index. This empirical evidence is related to variable macroeconomic changes, namely changes in inflation, rupiah exchange rate, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, Indonesian Syariah Bank Certificates (SBIS) and interest rates on sharia stock returns for the period January 2014-December 2019 obtained from Financial publications. Service Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia. The analysis technique used is quantitative analysis using multiple regression analysis tools. Purpose. This study aims to examine the influence of changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in SBIS, changes in foreign exchange reserves and changes in interest rates on the return of Indonesian Islamic stocks. Results. The results of this study are (1) Variable Changes in Inflation, Changes in the Amount of Money Supply, Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves, Changes in SBIS have a positive and significant effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index, (2) changes in exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on Stock Returns listed in Jakarta Islamic. Index, (3) the Interest Rate variable has no effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index. Conclusion. The approach used by each variable starts with the conventional followed by the study of Islamic macroeconomics, in order to provide a philosophy of science and economics that refers to Baqir Sadr in the Iqtishaduna book. In this study, researchers examined macroeconomic variables on sharia stock returns to prioritize people’s welfare and pay close attention to every investment process based on sharia principles. Therefore the public, entrepreneurs, investors and company performance must pay attention to information regarding changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS), changes foreign exchange reserves, and changes in interest rates in order to minimize risks for both investors and entrepreneurs. This variable can affect the movement of the capital market so that the return on Islamic stocks also has an effect. Keywords: Stock Return; Inflation Change; Rupiah Exchange Rate; Change in Amount of Money Supply; Change in Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate; Change in Foreign Exchange Reserves; and Change in Interest Rates.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity.FindingsThe findings are as follows: under the conditionalt‐distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness‐of‐fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity.Practical implicationsAssuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH‐type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Purpose: this study aims to examine the influence of changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in SBIS, changes in foreign exchange reserves and changes in interest rates on the return of Indonesian Islamic stocks.Methods: this study is focused on looking at conditions of macroeconomic changes that have an impact on the activity of the Islamic capital market, particularly on the return of Islamic stocks listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index. This empirical evidence is related to variable macroeconomic changes, namely changes in inflation, rupiah exchange rate, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, Indonesian Syariah Bank Certificates (SBIS) and interest rates on sharia stock returns for the period January 2014 – December 2019 obtained from Financial publications. Service Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia. The analysis technique used is quantitative analysis using multiple regression analysis tools.Results: the results of this study are (1) Variable Changes in Inflation, Changes in the Amount of Money Supply, Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves, Changes in SBIS have a positive and significant effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index, (2) changes in exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on Stock Returns listed in Jakarta Islamic. Index, (3) the Interest Rate variable has no effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index.Conclusions and Relevance: the approach used by each variable starts with the conventional followed by the study of Islamic macroeconomics, in order to provide a philosophy of science and economics that refers to Baqir Sadr in the Iqtishaduna book. In this study, researchers examined macroeconomic variables on sharia stock returns to prioritize people's welfare and pay close attention to every investment process based on sharia principles. Therefore the public, entrepreneurs, investors and company performance must pay attention to information regarding changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS), changes foreign exchange reserves, and changes in interest rates in order to minimize risks for both investors and entrepreneurs. This variable can affect the movement of the capital market so that the return on Islamic stocks also has an effect.

Purpose- The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between the change in exchange rates and the profitability of firms in Turkey. The changes in real effective exchange rate as the change in exchange rates criteria and return on assets as well as return on equity are considered for measuring profitability.Methodology- The sample of the research consists of 37 companies that are listed in BIST 100, operating in the manufacturing sector and whose data can be accessed completely. The data of the companies within the scope of the research were obtained from the official websites of Borsa Istanbul, Public Disclosure Platform, and Finnet and made ready for analysis. For the purpose of the research, panel data analysis, panel unit root tests, panel regression analysis, causality analysis, and moderating effect analysis were carried out.Findings-. Changes in foreign exchange rates, foreign sales and asset size of the companies do not have any significant impacts on the return on assets and return on equity during the period between 1999-2019 in Turkey. It has also been found that asset size, foreign sales, and change in exchange rates are the reasons for the return on assets and similarly, asset size, foreign sales, and change in exchange rate are the reasons for the return on equity. Finally, changes in the foreign exchange rate and export sales have a short-term causal relationship with both return on assets and return on equity, and changes in the foreign exchange rate and total assets have a moderating effect on return on assets.Conclusion- As a result of the research, it has been revealed that firms are affected by changes in foreign exchange rates with a delay. It means firms were likely be affected by the changes in exchange rates with a lag, and similarly, the changes in exchange rates affected financial performance with a lag. It has also been revealed from the research that firms effectively use internal and external hedging methods that help reduce the adverse impacts of the changes in foreign exchange rates.

Indonesia’s more open economy is very sensitive to external shocks which affects the direction and pattern, as well as the dynamic causal relationship and the characteristic of macroeconomic variables. This study is aimed to analyze the pattern and the characteristic by applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). According to GCT test, it is found that there is a causal relationship of macroeconomic variables, involving (1) feedback causality, (2) unidirectional causality and (3) independence. Incorporating external shocks in this study, price changes was not responded by the change of interest rate. Mean while, the change of exchange rates and price was positively responded by the change of money supply. In contrast with this, the change of interest rates, prices, and money supply were not responded by the change of exchange rates. In line with this, the change of the exchange rate and money supply variables were negatively responded by the change of price level, but it did not respond the change of output and interest rates. Finally, the change of exchange rates was positively responded by the change of real output. This finding was different when it did not include external shock such as the 2006 Kharie study.

Historical shocks (Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (15 September 2008), the FED?s tapering decision (18 December 2013), the CBRT?s interest rate decision (28 January 2013)) had significant impact on global and domestic financial markets, especially nonperforming loans (NPLs). In this context, main aim of this study is to analyze how volatility changes in exchange rates and interest rates triggered by these historical shocks affect consumer and industrial nonperforming loans in Turkish economy by using quantile regression techniques. The results showed that shocks that cause volatility changes in foreign exchange rates and interest rates have important effects on NPLs in the Turkish banking industry.

The abolition of most government controls over the Australian financial system in the 1980s, the advent of a flexible exchange rate regime in 1983 and the globalisation of the financial system in the 1990s have created new opportunities for Australian banks but exposed them to new sources of risk. This study estimates systematic risk exposure of publicly listed Australian banks with respect to market, interest rate and foreign exchange rate using a GARCH-in-Mean model. Not surprisingly, the results suggest that nearly all banks exhibit varying degrees of market risk exposure. However, stock returns of large banks are highly sensitive to interest rate changes, while most small banks are almost immune to both interest and exchange rate changes.

This study aims to illustrate the effect of the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates on the bond market by using the SVAR model for China during (2000 -2020), this is to analyze and measure the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and showing their impact through changes in the bond index and monitoring the changes that occur in their traded prices in the financial markets. This study is based on three standard model estimations. The first model includes the effect of interest rates and inflation on the exchange rates. The second model shows the effect of the exchange rates and money supply on the interest rate. The third model includes the effect of exchange and interest rates on the bond index. The Structural Vector Auto Regression Model (SVAR) was used to test the long-term relationship between the variables of the study, in addition to the variance Decomposition analysis and the analysis of the Impulse response functions (IRF). The results showed that the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates is a positive inverse relationship, and the effect is in both directions. In other words, when the prevailing interest rate rises in the country, it leads to an appreciation in the value of the currency due to the increase in demand for the currency of that country, resulting in a depreciation in its exchange rate and conversely. In addition, the results indicated that the bond index is sensitive to any shock or any unexpected change in exchange rate and interest rate and that these shocks manifest in the short term and stabilize in the long term.

PurposeThis paper attempts to examine the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices together with other important determinants of later, in case of a developing country, namely, India.Design/methodology/approachIn an open economy Philips curve framework, a symmetric model developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) together with a complete asymmetric model developed by Shin et al. (2014) has been applied to assess the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices (inflation) of India. In addition, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to portray the route between disequilibrium position of short run and new long-run equilibrium of the system. The multipliers highlight the asymmetric adjustment paths and/or duration of disequilibrium and therefore add valuable information to the long and short-run asymmetry.FindingsIn symmetric framework, exchange rate pass-through is reported to be incomplete and short-run pass through is found to be lower than the long-run pass through. A contractionary monetary policy stance is observed to decrease inflation in the long-run only and in the short-run, a case for price puzzle is observed, although the coefficient is statistically insignificant. Similarly, the impact of output growth is positive in both the short and long-run and both the coefficients are statically significant. Finally, the oil price inflation is also found to escalate the domestic inflationary pressures in both the short and long run, although the pass-through transmission is lower in the short-run than in the long-run. In case of an asymmetric setting, evidence in favour of directional asymmetry is reported whereby long-run impact of currency appreciation is found to be higher than depreciation. Similarly, a contractionary monetary policy action lowers the inflation, the easy one increases it; however, the impact of both the positive and negative changes in interest rate is found to be symmetric. An increase in GR is found to increase the inflation by a relatively appreciable magnitude than is observed when the fall in GR is reported. The possible reason for this asymmetric response of inflation may be explained in terms of asymmetric behaviour of demand conditions during economic upturns and downturns and downward inflexibility of prices. Finally, the transmission of oil price inflation to domestic inflation is also found to be asymmetric. An increase in oil price inflation leads to an increase in domestic inflation by a higher magnitude. whereas a decrease in it lowers inflation only marginally.Practical implicationsFrom a policy perspective, it is certainly important for the central banks to monitor the exchange rate changes so as to design the appropriate policy actions to resist any inflationary pressures resulting from the external sector. More importantly, a gauge on the factors that lead to destabilizing exchange rate movements or large currency price fluctuations is highly warranted. The results also highlight the relevance of proper domestic demand management and lowering dependence on oil imports to avoid the unnecessary inflation pressures in the economy.Originality/valueWhile some studies have explored the possibilities of asymmetric interactions in the case of India, however, these studies have considered only the partial asymmetric model specifications and have not included a well-established theoretical base to include the other potential determinants of inflation as well. In this regard, the authors applied a complete asymmetric model specification developed by Shin et al. (2014) in an open economy Philips curve framework to assess the transmission of exchange rate changes into the domestic prices (inflation) of India. This paper will enrich the existing literature from a viewpoint of a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate pass-through by taking note of potential asymmetries coupled with other important determinants of inflation.

The essence of the modern asset‐market approach to the analysis of exchange rate behavior includes the role of the trade balance account. We examine the relationship between exchange rate changes and US trade balance announcements. Statistically significant exchange rate adjustments to these announcements are documented using for the first time the comparison period approach to testing the significance of trade balance announcements on exchange rates. The evidence is consistent with the predictions of the modern asset‐market exchange rate model. There is also evidence that the foreign exchange market is more sensitive to increasing rather than decreasing trade balance deficit announcements. To date, a number of theoretical papers have investigated the possible sources of the exchange rate determination process (see, Dornbusch [1976,1980], Dornbusch and Fisher [1980], Frenkel [1976, 1981], Kouri [1976], and Mussa [1982], among others). There is no consensus on how exchange rates are determined and why they...

This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation on stock prices of agribusiness companies on the LQ-45 index. This study used monthly time series data from 2008-2018 and analyzed by the VECM method. The results showed that the stock price reaction of eight agribusiness companies in the LQ-45 index varies with changes in macroeconomic variables both in the short and long term. In the short term, changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on one company stock prices, while changes in inflation and interest rates had a negative and significant effect on four companies and one company respectively. In the long term, the results showed that changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on two companies’ stock prices, while it had a negative and significant effect on five companies. The result also showed that changes in inflation had a positive and negative effect on one company and six companies respectively in the long term. Also besides changes in interest rates had a positive and negative effect on two companies’ stock prices respectively.