Evolving institutions of sustainability: a dynamic model of historical water governance transformations in Central Asia

Transboundary water governance, understood as ownership, development and management of water resources, has been developing in Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of national water legal systems. However, fairly developed water governance on transboundary basins in the region still requires strengthening through enhancing riparian states’ institutional cooperation at all levels of interstate cooperation—regional level, transboundary river basins and bilateral level. Joint management arrangements (JMA), which according to widespread international legal practice are used to facilitate interstate cooperation on transboundary water basins, still pose a sufficient challenge to all levels of transboundary water governance in Central Asia. The most developed JMA in Central Asia is the mechanism represented by International Fund for Saving Aral Sea (IFAS), representing all states on the regional level of water governance. Not a flawless legal nature of IFAS envisages current challenges to the development of JMA at all institutional levels of interstate cooperation in Central Asia. Further, it reflects the need for further development and strengthening of transboundary water governance in the region.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, fundamental water governance reforms have been introduced in Central Asia, here referring to Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. One major reform effort, aligned with the dominant global discourse and promoted by international donors, has been the reorganization of governance arrangements according to the river basin management. This approach aims to consider the water needs of multiple stakeholders and sectors in a holistic water policy and planning.  Creating new governance mechanisms is always inherently political as it entails decisions on mandates, funding, and decision-making power.In this paper, we attempt to understand better the politics of institutionalizing river basin management in Central Asia. We focus on the national and sub-national levels and look specifically at the establishment of basin organizations to replace earlier administrative management units and the establishment of basin councils for stakeholder participation. For this, we reviewed academic literature and policy reports and conducted semi-structured interviews with national and international experts.The results show that the differences in perception of water problems signal an overall different understanding of the needs to change water governance approaches. The cases of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan reveal that institutionalization of river basin management can work when donor support and national ownership come together, and the lead water agency has the power to coordinate both international and national actors. Stakeholder participation through basin councils is still only partially implemented and weakened by the political culture of the countries. Nevertheless, examples indicate that basin councils are also used for bottom-up cooperation and communication, discussion, and solution of the water problems and, with incentives from donors, are slowly opening up for more diverse membership.The paper shows that in the politics of water governance in Central Asia, the interests and activities of national and international actors are closely interwoven. The exposure to global discourses and good water governance norms promoted by international donors fostered legal changes in all countries of the region but were embraced in various degrees. Ultimately, depending on the capacities and commitment (or opposition) of national actors, the institutionalization of river basin management plays out differently in each country. River basin management was at the core of many of such donor projects as well on the top of some government agendas. Donors are criticized for limited coordination among themselves, lack of knowledge of the regional context, and transfer of global blueprints with insufficient adaptation to local realities. On the side of Central Asian countries, the political and socio-economic context, weak institutions, and limited capacity of national water agencies are often mentioned as unfavorable for implementing reforms that aim for decentralization and participation.

This article aims to introduce different views regarding the concept of adaptive capacity in water governance and unpack it in the Central Asian context, specifically. The desk study research built on the recommendations provided by the academia, policy papers and by experts on enhancing adaptive water governance. The juxtaposition of the three sets of recommendations demonstrates that the further strengthening of IWRM, as well as experimental approach to resource management, improved access to climate knowledge and disaster risk reduction mechanisms can consolidate the adaptive capacities of Central Asian water governance systems. The research was limited by the specific set of selected opinions and should be expanded in the future. As a practical outcome, the analysis aimed to provide the decision-makers in Central Asian states with better science-based avenues to planning adaptation measures ensuite the water sector. Thus, the study can be considered a stepping stone in the discussion on the adaptive capacities of water governance in the Central Asian region.

Central Asia is an integral part of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative and the management of water resources is a critical issue in the region. Recently China has become more active in pursuing its economic and political interests in the Eurasian landmass and its expansionist drive has received much attention in the academic literature, which informs this article. The success or failure of the B&R is intertwined with the political economy of water in Central Asia and the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the central importance of water, given the recent history, to such an ambitious economic initiative. The design of the paper is to firstly to traverse the literature and academic debate on Chinese motives and intentions and how they can impact on upstream and downstream water issues. Then water issues and water governance will be examined considering particularly available evidence of Chinese project experiences in B&R countries, the inter-country geo-political situation in Central Asia and the recent history of environmentally rooted conflict in the region. The methodology broadly follows a systems approach, meaning that understanding is obtained by giving attention to the interacting sub-systems: the political, economic, geographical, social and environmental factors in the context of recent history and the literature on Chinese intentions and motivations. The main conclusions are that the B&R initiative, while offering economic development promise, contains inherent risks of conflict and project failure, particularly in the context of existing and potential water conflicts. Improved trans-boundary governance – especially regarding trans-boundary river systems, stakeholder engagement and effective project management will be required. It is intended that the arguments will resonate with decision-makers and project designers.

Engineering, economic, social sciences, geophysical, and integrated modeling studies have approached the assessment of water security in Central Asia (CA) in distinct ways. Different indicators and indexes have been introduced to assess the most vulnerable aspects of water use in this region. Until now, though, the suggested approaches are often represented in a fragmented manner, while the relevant indicators cannot fully attribute the vulnerability status of a country or on a regional level. This can result in diverging perceptions of the water security situation in policy dialogues, also affecting bilateral and multilateral relations among the countries in CA. In this study, we conduct a bibliometric review on the approaches and methods that directly or indirectly touch upon the water security perceptions in CA. We employ data mining techniques to explore trends in the conceptualization of water security in the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union by also identifying the water interests and priorities set by each country. The findings reveal that within the last decade, the water security-related studies have given much importance to technical and infrastructural means to protect human livelihoods against global environmental changes but also to foster economic growth. The water governance and management aspects are largely overlooked in favour of more techno-centric approaches. These findings are expected to clarify further the perception of the water security concept within CA by indicating the geophysical, institutional, and historical challenges that need to be met for a mutual understanding among the countries in the region.

Central Asia (CA) hosts some of the world’s most complex and most extensive water management infrastructures allocated in the two major transboundary basins of the Amudarya and Syrdarya Rivers. The upstream countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan mainly utilize the rivers for hydropower and irrigation, whereas the downstream countries of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan primarily use them for irrigation purposes. The governance of the two river basins has been contested since Soviet times, and more so after the independence of the CA countries. The scheme of Small Basin Councils (SBCs) has been introduced in the region from 2010 to 2022 to improve local and transboundary water governance at a sub-basin and catchment level. Implementing SBCs in CA is still in the experimental phase, and its contribution to river basin management is insufficiently explored. However, there are indications that SBCs play a significant role in raising awareness of and engagement with local communities and improving local and transboundary governance management and coordination. Most important, SBCs can help resolve critical issues in agricultural water allocation, one of the most contentious issues for transboundary water governance in CA. The basin councils could become significant leverage for improving water governance on national and transboundary systems in CA by actively engaging local communities in management, planning, and administration.

Water security in Central Asia has been discussed by researchers and international organizations using hydrological, engineering, and modeling approaches. Various frameworks conceptualize water security through technical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. This study attempts to identify the current trends of perceptions of experts about water security in Central Asian countries and Afghanistan as assessed through different regional and international experts with relevant knowledge and experience. The experts originate from diverse professional backgrounds like ministries, NGOs, international organizations, research, and academic institutes. The analysis was conducted through the Delphi approach, which has been widely used to identify experts' views by reaching a consensus on various subjects. The Delphi method assisted in the elicitation of experts' opinions about different water security dimensions in the overall region and each Central Asia country that have been suggested from the relevant literature. The two-round questionnaire was developed to infer the experts' views (round 1) on water security in Central Asia and then identify the agreement's rate with the initial findings (round 2). The results have shown that, while the relevant scientific literature gives priority to environmental factors, the experts emphasize water security's economic aspects. Experts suggested including transboundary challenges, legislative and institutional weaknesses in assessing water security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Respondents highlighted the low effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the current institutions and mechanisms that dealt with water security-related issues in Central Asia and suggested strengthening water governance in the region.

<p><span>The term water security constantly evolves. In </span><span>different contexts, </span><span><span>water is valued differently and t</span>he perception of water security is closely affected by local <span>history, culture as well as the political systems where the agents are located. In Asia, water politics has been explored from a range of perspectives, reflecting the complicated discourses, processes and narratives when the global South respond to water-related challenges. Lacking of a coherent conceptual tool of water security, the region suffers mistrust among nations, along with misinterpretation of the water security situation in policy dialogues.</span></span></p><p><span><span> </span></span></p><p><span><span>Because of its sheer size, China’s commodities importation and especially food imports induced by water shortages can have a large impact on international markets. The Central government has constantly revised its water governance, with an intention to demonstrated that on a national scale, the overall volume of water supply from the country is sufficient to support its economic and industrial development. However, domestic water governance has shown its inefficiencies. Additionally, being the source of many international rivers, China’s policies toward international river basins have also significantly impacted inter-state negotiation and the peacefully resolution of tensions over shared international river basins. </span></span></p><p><span><span> </span></span></p><p><span><span>In Central Asia, after the dissolution of the Soviet regime, divergent views and perceptions exist on water security. Apart from attention for water allocation issues in the entire region, there has been an effort to reconsider the dimensions of water use and control in CA in order to protect and utilize water resources on national level. Different measurable indicators and indexes have been introduced to assess the most vulnerable or else insecure aspects of water use among the five Central Asian countries. However, the suggested approaches often represent these frameworks in a fragmented manner, lacking of a holistic evaluation of the understanding of the vulnerability status at a country or regional level. </span></span></p><p><span><span> </span></span></p><p><span><span>We adopt the evaluation framework proposed in the Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO) as the main platform to conduct our assessment. Namely, the five key dimensions on household, economic, urban, and environmental and resilience to water-disasters are accounted as the major parameters to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of water resources in Central Asia and China. With regard to method, data is sourced from literature review published between 1991-2019. Consistent data screening method will be applied to the case of China and Central Asia to understand the evolution of national water interest. The analysis will be based on the identification and evaluation of different indicators and attributes through coding and data classification approaches.</span></span></p><p><span><span> </span></span></p><p><span><span>We conduct an extensive literature review on the approaches and methods that directly or indirectly touch upon the above-mentioned dimensions. The findings will fill a major gap on the perception of water security in Asia, where both differences and mutual understanding of water risks exist between China and the Central Asian countries. This work has significant policy implications. It’ll contribute to a better understanding of water vulnerability in the region, which also contribute to policy dialogues.</span></span></p>

Internationally the benefit sharing approach is promoted to encourage cooperation in transboundary water governance. Costs of cooperation are so far under researched. Attention of few international studies is limited to benefit and cost sharing practices for dam projects. Here, the case study looks at long-term costs of cooperation in an empirical example from Central Asia. In the Syr Darya Basin, a compensation package for constructing the Toktogul Reservoir on the Naryn in upstream Kyrgyzstan required Uzbekistan to shift water withdrawals from small transboundary tributaries to the main river. The shift of water allocation created long-term costs for Uzbekistan. The paper highlights the challenges related to the originally perceived as beneficial compensation mechanisms (water swaps) within one basin and long-term cost implications. The need for revision of benefit sharing agreements to allow adaptation to new challenges is discussed. We stress the costs when existing benefit sharing arrangements are ignored whether in full or in part. Keywords: Transboundary water; Benefit sharing; Long-term costs; Pumping stations; Central Asia

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19.ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully.MethodsUsing a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19–related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsCOVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight.ConclusionsThe rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

Costs and impact on HIV transmission of a switch from a criminalisation to a public health approach to injecting drug use in eastern Europe and central Asia: a modelling analysis.

The relevance of the study is due to the importance of a comprehensive study of the issues of effective functioning and development prospects of the national economies of the EAEU states and Central Asia in the framework of the formation of a multifaceted system of relations in the post-Soviet space. The article analyzes the problems of effectively overcoming crisis phenomena within the framework of national states in the context of global geopolitical and economic turbulence; mechanisms for convergence of national legislations and uniformity of macroeconomic and institutional transformations are considered; analyzed a number of important aspects in the framework of ensuring the economic security of the countries of the EAEU and Central Asia and the sustainable functioning of regional economic systems in general. Method (methodology) of the work. The analysis of methodological provisions carried out in the article focuses on the study of competitive advantages and the system for coordinating the interactions between the economies of the EAEU and Central Asia. Results. Based on the analysis of the prospects for the development of the states of Central Asia, in terms of studying issues of territorial community, equal starting levels of economic development, unified transport and energy communications, assessment and efficiency of the use of water resources, conclusions are drawn about the need to implement a set of measures that provide for the structural restructuring of national economies, increasing investment potential in priority areas (for example, new technologies, development of human capital) from the position of harmonizing the models of transformation of national economies and harmonizing the not always coinciding interests of society, the state and corporations.

Central Asian countries have experienced a transition from a centralized state-managed economy to a decentralized market-oriented one, and gained valuable experience in designing institutions involving common-pool resource (CPR) management. Top-down policy interventions have affected natural resource usage practices and had environmental, social and economic consequences. On the other hand, in a bottom-up transformation process, many informal practices for using local resources and many forms of cooperation have emerged and become institutionalized, adapting to the changing socio-economic context. This paper demonstrates an empirical application of the Institutions of Sustainability (IoS) framework, analyzing these emerged institutions, and governance structures in pasture and irrigation management. It studies how the physical nature-related transactions are institutionalized through the operationalization of a discriminative alignment principle. The research results show that actors’ interdependencies caused by the attributes of nature-related transactions play a decisive role in institutional development in CPR management in Central Asia. The authors argue that differences in the properties of physical nature-related transactions in pasture and irrigation water use can be linked and explained through differences in the key characteristics of governance structures.

This chapter addresses the following questions: whether religious transfer took place between Iran and Central Asia in the Bronze Age, and if so, how, when and why did it come about, and which models of transfer, transformation and change can be found. Regarding the question of Trading the objects, subjects and the different levels of religious trade have to be analyzed. The intention is therefore to diagnose: What was traded (symbols, gods, heroes, religious objects or a symbol system/ religion as a whole), who was the trader (merchants, travelling craftsmen, people) and what was the socio-economic background? The art of Bactria seems to be characterized to a high degree by goddesses, mixed beings and mythological motifs which can be traced back to Iranian forerunners that themselves have older roots in periods of Iranian prehistory. Keywords: Bactria; Bronze Age; Iran; mythological motifs; trading religions

Water, energy, and climate change are intrinsically related to each other but are nonetheless subject to different international legal regimes. The fragmented nature of water, energy, and climate governance represents a challenge for the sustainable management of resources in the energy and water landscape of the 21st century. Regulatory choices in one field can potentially undermine the policy objectives pursued in the other fields. Promoting conventional and unconventional energy production for energy security purposes increases pressure on the availability of fresh water resources and contributes to climate change. Climate change exacerbates the scarcity of water resources, which leads to increasing tensions relating to water access and energy supply in certain regions of the world. Water- and energy-related tensions are particularly acute in Central Asia. Because of its large energy reserves and strategic location in the heart of Eurasia, the Central Asian region is of significant importance for world energy markets. In addition to fossil energy, Central Asia holds large water resources. However, energy and water resources are unevenly distributed in the region, which creates a need for close transboundary cooperation in order to ensure equitable and sustainable access to these vital resources. Despite the mutual benefits of cooperation in Central Asia, governments are reluctant to rely on their neighbors for their water and energy security. States’ refusal to cooperate generates high energy, social, economic, and environmental costs, and poses a serious threat to peace and stability in a region of particular geopolitical relevance. External legal mechanisms are needed to overcome the present political obstacles to transboundary cooperation in resources management. In an effort to overcome the fragmented nature of water, energy, and climate law, this Article examines how international law—in particular the principle of transboundary cooperation—can contribute to addressing the resource management challenges in Central Asia. Additionally, this analysis aims to contribute to the development of international law on transboundary resources management. Based on the Central Asian case study, this Article argues in favor of an integrated approach to water-energy-climate regulation in order to achieve water-energy-climate security in a mutually reinforcing way.