Evaluation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Moist Processes in the NOGAPS Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts

Abstract

Abstract Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analysis and operational forecasts are evaluated against the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; ERAI) and satellite data, and compared with the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts, using both performance- and physics-based metrics. The NOGAPS analysis captures realistic Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signals in the dynamic fields and the low-level premoistening leading to active convection, but the MJO signals in the relative humidity (RH) and diabatic heating rate (Q1) fields are weaker than those in the ERAI or the GFS analysis. The NOGAPS forecasts, similar to the GFS forecasts, have relatively low prediction skill for the MJO when the MJO initiates over the Indian Ocean and when active convection is over the Maritime Continent. The NOGAPS short-term precipitation forecasts are broadly consistent with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation results with regionally quantitative differences. Further evaluation of the precipitation and column water vapor (CWV) indicates that heavy precipitation develops too early in the NOGAPS forecasts in terms of the CWV, and the NOGAPS forecasts show a dry bias in the CWV increasing with forecast lead time. The NOGAPS underpredicts light and moderate-to-heavy precipitation but overpredicts extremely heavy rainfall. The vertical profiles of RH and Q1 reveal a dry bias within the marine boundary layer and a moist bias above. The shallow heating mode is found to be missing for CWV < 50 mm in the NOGAPS forecasts. The diabatic heating biases are associated with weaker trade winds, weaker Hadley and Walker circulations over the Pacific, and weaker cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean in the NOGAPS forecasts.