Evaluation of Tourism Ecological Security Based on Driving Force–Pressure–State–Influence–Response Framework and Analysis of Its Dynamic Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Chinese Province Territory

Abstract

Tourism ecological security (TES) is an important measure of the sustainable development of the tourism industry. It is also an important indicator for evaluating the balance between economic growth and the environmental load of tourism destinations. Therefore, the scientific measurement and examination of TES have important theoretical and practical value in promoting the coordinated and sustainable development of the regional tourism economy and ecological environment. From the perspective of systems theory, based on the driving force–pressure–state–influence–response model, the theoretical framework and index system of China’s provincial TES were constructed. The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution method, spatial autocorrelation, traditional and spatial Markov chain, ordinary least squares regression, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model were used to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of TES. The results indicated the following: (1) Regarding time series, the average value of TES was generally relatively stable with small fluctuations, the differences among provinces exhibited a converging trend, and a significant spatial correlation was observed between the TES of provinces. (2) In terms of dynamic evolution, the transfer of TES types exhibited “path dependence” and “self-locking” effects, meaning the probability of transfer to other types was low, and the status and transfer of TES types were closely related to their neighborhood status. (3) Regarding the driving factors, except for the negative inhibitory effect of environmental pollution on TES, all other variables had a positive promoting effect on TES; however, the effect of each variable in different provinces varied significantly. The results and methods used in this study can enrich the research on TES and provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the healthy and sustainable development of the tourism industry in Chinese provinces.