Evaluation of deriving fire cycle of forested landscape based on time-since-fire distribution

Abstract

Estimation of fire cycle has been conducted by using the negative exponential function as an approximation of time-since-fire distribution of a landscape assumed to be homogeneous with respect to fire spread processes. The authors imposed predefined fire cycles on a virtual landscape of 100 cell × 100 cell, and obtained a mosaic composing of patches with different stand ages (i.e. time since fire). Graphical and statistical methods (Van Wagner 1978; Reed et al. 1998) were employed to derive fire cycle from the virtual landscape. By comparing the predefined and the derived fire cycles, the two methods and tested the effects of sample size and hazard of burning (i.e., stand’s susceptibility to fire in relation to its stand age) were evaluated on fire cycle deviation. The simulation results indicated a minimum sample size of 10 times of the annual burnt area would be required for partitioning time-since-fire distribution into homogeneous epochs indicating temporal change in fire cycle. Statistically, there was significant difference among the imposed and the derived fire cycle, regardless of sample sizes with or without consideration of hazard of burning. Both methods underestimated the more recent fire cycle without significant difference between them. The results imply that deviation of fire cycle based on time-since-fire distribution warrants cautious interpretation, especially when a landscape is spatially partitioned into small units and temporal changes in fire cycle are involved.