Evaluation of an integrated modelling system containing a multi-layer perceptron model and the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM for the forecasting of urban airborne pollutant concentrations

Abstract

In this paper, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model and the Finnish variant of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) were integrated and evaluated for the forecasting in time of urban pollutant concentrations. The forecasts of the combination of the MLP and HIRLAM models are compared with the corresponding forecasts of the MLP models that utilise meteorologically pre-processed input data. A novel input selection method based on the use of a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is applied in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis to reduce the excessively large number of potential meteorological input variables; its use improves the performance of the MLP model. The computed air quality forecasts contain the sequential hourly time series of the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from May 2000 to April 2003; the corresponding concentrations have also been measured at two urban air quality stations in Helsinki. The results obtained with the MLP models that use HIRLAM forecasts show fairly good overall agreement for both pollutants. The model performance is substantially better, when the HIRLAM forecasts are used, compared with those obtained both using either HIRLAM analysis data or meteorological pre-processor, for both pollutants. The performance of the currently widely used statistical forecasting methods (such as those based on neural networks) could therefore be significantly improved by using the forecasts of NWP models, instead of the conventionally utilised directly measured or meteorological pre-processed input data. However, the performance of all operational models considered is relatively worse in the course of air pollution episodes.