Abstract
Abstract. Drought prediction is crucial, especially where the rainfall regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined drought indicator (CDI) integrating rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics is proposed. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for evaluating rainfall trends. A bucket-type soil moisture model is employed for keeping track of soil moisture and calculating anomalies, and, finally, satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are used for monitoring vegetation response. The proposed CDI has four levels, at increasing degrees of severity: watch, warning, alert type I and alert type II. This CDI was thus applied over the period 2003–2013 to five study sites, representative of the main grain-growing areas of SW Spain. The performance of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison with observed crop damage data. Observations show a good match between crop damage and the CDI. Important crop drought events in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, distinguished by crop damage in between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area, were correctly predicted by the proposed CDI in all five areas.
Highlights
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon on the Earth’s surface
Whereas our soil moisture anomaly index (SMAI) uses a more advanced soil water balance algorithm, and it is clear that future studies should focus on site-specific calibrations of soil moisture dynamics against field data or by observations from remote sensing
This study has presented a new combined drought index (CDI) for the assessment of agricultural drought
Summary
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon on the Earth’s surface. It is triggered by lack of water, or “an extended imbalance between supply and demand” in the precise expression of Hobbins et al (2016), and may have economic, social and environmental impacts (Wilhite, 2000). Drought is one of the most important natural disasters threatening our society. Wilhite and Glantz (1985) distinguished four main types of droughts according to how the effects were noticed: (i) meteorological, due to the scarcity of rainfall; (ii) hydrological, detected by low streamflow; (iii) agricultural, when soil water is not sufficient to maintain a crop; and (iv) socioeconomic, when it affects the normal functioning of society
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
